Thursday, 29 September 2016

Armageddon of 2019, Redux

I seem to have inadvertently become famous.

Let me explain.

A little over three years ago, I wrote a speculative story about a war between India and Pakistan I predicted would take place in 2019. If you haven’t read it already, you can either click here...

<----------------- or look to the left of the page where it’s right on top of the list of popular posts, and where it seems determined to stay for all time to come.

In fact, at this point I strongly suggest you read it, if you haven’t already, so you know what it is that I thought might happen if India and Pakistan went to war.

It’s a story that’s got me a lot of vituperation, including multiple threats of violence and a couple desiring my death. All, without exception, of these threats were from anonymous persons purporting to be Indian patriots, that is, Hindunazis. I’m fairly certain not one of these gentlemen ever put on a uniform, or has any intention of putting on a uniform and laying his life on the line. For Hindunazis, the keyboard is their weapon and shield, the only thing that gives some validity to their lives.

But even then, a lot of people seem unable to differentiate between fact and fiction, to the extent that I’ve had people asking whether this actually happened. And Arsalan Ghumman, whom I’ve given a role in the story, told me that a Pakistani military person of his acquaintance informed him that this story was written by an Indian intelligence agency (RAW) “element”. Both of us had a good laugh, though it wasn’t funny.  

Yes, you imbeciles, it is a story. It is as much a story as the vainglorious crap you might prefer to read with Ramboesque Indian supersoldiers massacring evil Pakistani terrorists. Only it’s not fantasy, and if it doesn’t fit into your comfort zone, too bad. Nobody put a nuclear bomb to your head and made you read it.

Do I think India and Pakistan might actually go to nuclear war? No. But if India and Pakistan did go to full scale war, it could not, in my opinion, stop short of going nuclear. The reason is simple. In the far north, the frontier along the divided state of Kashmir is mountainous and heavily fortified on both sides. There is no way an Indian attack across the frontier there would achieve anything. Next is Punjab, which is also heavily fortified (I read of one Indian defence account which called the Pakistani fortifications “mind boggling”) . Any Indian attempt to attack there would be doomed. The southern end of the frontier, in Gujarat, is marshy and unsuitable for large scale troop movement. The only place where any Indian offensive has a good chance of success is in the central sector, where the Thar Desert lies across both countries. An offensive across this desert could cut Pakistan in two.

Pakistan is well aware of that possibility, and has prepared by mounting tactical nuclear weapons on short range battlefield missiles, to be used on its own territory. Those missiles essentially make any major Indian offensive impossible, and India cannot counter in the same way because it has no tactical nuclear weapons. It’s threatened to retaliate by nuking Pakistani cities, which is basically the only option open to it. And in that case, Pakistan, which has many more and likely better nuclear weapons than India, can do exactly the same. And then India will suffer massively because almost all of its industrial and economic centres are concentrated in the north and west of the country, within easy rage of Pakistani missiles and aircraft. Modi’s own home state, Gujarat, which is the westernmost Indian province, especially wouldn’t stand a chance.

No, a full scale war is not going to happen. But that doesn’t mean one can’t write speculative fiction warning of the consequences if it did.

[As I write this, I heard of the Indian government claiming it had conducted “surgical strikes” on “terrorist camps” in Pakistani Kashmir. I do not believe one single, solitary word of it, and anyone who does needs a brain transplant. The story is an obvious fabrication by the Modi regime to placate its right wing constituency and claim that it “defends the nation”.]

A few days ago, I discovered that a Pakistani television channel had done a programme based on my story. It’s basically a narration of my story in Urdu, with visuals added, mostly from films depicting the bombing of Hiroshima. It does compress things a lot and makes some errors, but these are relatively minor, not even worth discussing here. The thing is, someone read the story and thought it important enough to make a programme on it. And they did it not as entertainment, but as a plea for peace.

Here is the video:

It is significant that it’s the “warmongering” Pakistanis, who, according to one person who saw fit to comment on my story, only want their “72 virgins”, are the ones who used my story to make a plea for peace, while my allegedly “peace loving” Indian compatriots call anyone who wants peace a “commie traitor” or – as per one Twitter feed – “pro-Paki doves.” It is absolutely no surprise to me, though it may be to some people. India pretends to be peaceful, but it’s a hyper violent country with an enormous chip on its shoulder, which wishes it was a great power and reacts violently to reminders that it is not.

No, the Pakistani channel didn’t ask for my permission to make the programme, though they did show my photo and name. They should have asked, but I won’t make a big fuss on the point.

If it helps give some idiots a new perspective, it will be worth it.


  1. Whoa!

    That's... better than going viral. How strange is that?

    I love the comments on the original post, including "Please confirm this is fiction."

  2. Looking more and more likely in '16.

    Secretary Clinton has said she's afraid Pakistan will nuke India. A Hindoo friend says, if they do, India will obliterate all of Pakistan.

    What a comforting promise?



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