Thursday 20 July 2023

The End Of The Grain Deal And The Kerch Bridge Explosions


By now anyone remotely interested in the conflict in Ukranazistan will be aware that Russia terminated the Grain Deal that’s been in effect since 22 July 2022 and which allowed Ukranazistan to export grain from Odessa. In all probability the majority of those who are aware of it will have been made awar of it by the media shrieking that this will cause starvation in poor countries.

Will it?

This article,[1] for instance, ends with:

"Terminating the grain deal will only bring higher food costs and shortages for countries that import agricultural products from Ukraine."

Here's the truth about where the grain from Ukranazistan goes:[2] 

"China has been the main destination for cargo exports of Ukrainian grain at 8 million tonnes, followed by Spain at 6 million tonnes and Turkey at 3.2 million tonnes."

Only 2.5% of Ukrainian grain went to poor or developing countries according to the UN official data.

Low-income countries received 2.5% of the over 32 million tonnes of grain exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, according to figures by the United Nations (UN).

Of the 6 million tonnes sent to Spain, the vast majority went to feed pigs to make jamon

The majority of the 3.2 million tonnes to Erdoğanistan was processed into flour and sent right back to Ukranazistan. 

So, no, it won't. 

In fact, it won’t even significantly raise wheat prices, as Moon Of Alabama points out: [3]

“More wheat is coming to the markets from other producers than Ukraine. During the next year, even without grain from Ukraine, prices for wheat and corn may actually come down:

World wheat supplies are strong following exceptionally high exports from Australia and Russia and a rebound in Canadian shipments after droughts disrupted last year’s season. After falling for years, global stocks may finally rise in 2023. As for corn, Ukraine’s shortfall may well be filled by expected record sales from Brazil, reckons Alexis Ellender of Kpler, a data firm.

So this is much ado about nothing. Globally Ukraine just isn't important at all.”

Of course you wouldn’t know this from the usual media suspects, whose primary purpose is to blame Russia for everything.

If there is anything Russia is to be blamed for, it’s for signing the grain deal in the first place.

What were the terms of the grain deal? Ships from Odessa and Nikolayev would carry Ukranazistani grain – wheat and maize – to Erdoğanistan (that’s Turkey to you) where it would be inspected by Russian and Turkish officials to ascertain that there were no military supplies on board, after which it would be shipped on elsewhere.

In return Russian grain would be allowed free movement, Russian ammonia pipelines to fertiliser factories would be permitted uninterrupted, and Russia would be reconnected to SWIFT.

Predictably, none of that happened. It is astonishing that anyone could imagine that it would have happened, but Putin’s capacity to be deceived by his Western “partners” seems almost limitless.

Well, I said almost, but with any luck that limit has finally been reached.

It was not just that the Ukranazis’ Western masters did not follow through on their own commitments to the grain deal: they used it to arrange both the partly successful attacks on the Kerch Bridge, the one last year and the one a few days ago.

Here’s how the bridge blast by an explosives-rigged lorry last year went, as pieced together by Russian intelligence:

A Ukranazi ship loaded with explosives sailed out of Odessa as part of the grain deal, but instead of going south to Erdoğanistan it turned west and sailed up the Danube to an inland port in Bulgaria.There it unloaded its explosives, which by a circuitous route went through Georgia into Russia, where it was transferred to the final lorry (whose driver had no idea what he was carrying) for shipment to Crimea across the Kerch bridge. Once on the bridge, the lorry was exploded by a remote controlled detonator.

This kind of thing is no longer possible, since every vehicle is now X rayed and searched before being allowed on the bridge. Multiple attempts at missile strikes on the bridge since then by the Ukranazis with their Brutish-supplied Storm Shadow missiles have also failed against the now heavy and layered Russian air defences. So the Ukranazis’ Western masters had to step in directly.

The second attack on the Kerch Bridge was carried out by Brutish underwater drones released from a civilian dry goods bulk carrier cargo ship, sailing as part of the Grain Deal, off Snake Island. This followed Brutish plans to destroy the bridge [4] hatched over months. Instead of destroying it, though, they managed to cause actually rather less extensive damage than the lorry bomb attempt. While one span of the road bridge was broken, the other was undamaged, and the far more important railway bridge untouched. [5] Military traffic to Crimea was not affected at all.

What the Ukranazis and their NATO masters managed to do was murder a holidaying couple [6] and put their 14-year-old daughter Angelina in a coma. This has not unnaturally led to fury among Russian forces, and writing “For Angelina” on shells being fired at the Ukranazis.

It has also led to many of the blueyellow-ragwagging nazi worshippers online revealing just what kind of hate-filled vermin [7] they are. Consider this character:


It is allegedly a teacher.

Fortunately, this one was so stupid as to post under its real name, and has been speedily doxxed, with everything including its address, email, and phone number exposed:


Hopefully it will soon receive a visit from several large biker/trucker types. From reading online comment fora I’m led to believe there’s a lot of sympathy among that demographic for Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia is making sure the Ukranazis and their NATOstani masters won’t be able to sneak grain (or “grain”) ships into and out of Ukranazistan by reducing the Odessa port facilities to scrap.[8]

In return for relatively minor damage inflicted to the Kerch Bridge, I don’t know if the Ukranazis and their NATO masters still think it’s been worth it.

 If it means Putin has been finally disillusioned about his western "partners", it's not been worth it at all.












Reading List Modifications Notice


Readers looking at the bar on the left of this page, which is titled If You’re Not Going To Read Me, Read Them, will notice a few modifications. Some links have been removed, several more added.

Here’s why:

One of the “eye-openers” of the SMO – for those who have been in a coma since 23 February 2022, that’s Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukranazistan, which is not a declared war – is how many people and organisations have revealed their true colours. It involves not just the usual suspects – the rainbow-ragwagging liberal media and assorted paid propagandists and politicians – but “anti imperialist” sites and what I’d thought were normal people.

It is somewhat of a surprise to watch, for instance, someone who one’s known for over a decade, once a funny and intelligent woman who used to raise laughs on the Comics Curmudgeon where she was a regular commenter, degenerate into a self-lobotomised demented harpy calling her own political tribe’s opponents “nazis” while supporting and cheering on genuine Hitler-saluting swastika-tattooed Waffen SS-pride-parading prisoner-murdering blueyellow-ragwagging nazis in Ukraine. So, she’s gone.

As is Antiwar, which has been sliding towards irrelevance for years, to be precise since the death of Justin Raimondo, and which has now fallen to the point where articles by political science postgraduate students in Amerikastani universities are presented as credible on military strategy.

Some blogs are dead – haven’t been updated in years – and I have no reason to believe (since I don’t know them away from Blogger) that they will ever update again. Gone.

At the same time I’ve found people who are emphatically worth reading, though I do not necessarily agree with them always or even most of the time:

Awful Avalanche of yalensis, who posts a daily article, usually on the human aspects of the SMO, and who has grown to be an online friend.

The Reading Junkie, an Amerikastani living in Russia, and his Russian wife. Always interesting.

A Son Of The New American Revolution by Larry Johnson, “former” CIA. Often wrong but always worth the read.

Moon Of Alabama by Bernhard, former German military intelligence. Again often wrong but always readable.

Your “Great Reset” HQ, by Jacob Dreizin. Look past the deliberately over the top self-aggrandising language and you’ll find some of the best analysis and predictions on the net about the conflict in Ukranazistan.

Simplicius’ Garden Of Knowledge, excellent in depth analysis, albeit occasionally willing to bend facts to excuse Putin’s blunders.

 William Schryver, again excellent analysis.

Some didn’t make the cut:

Reminiscence Of The Future by Andrei Martyanov, a wildly overrated mass of stinking sewer gas whose arrogance is only matched by his worthless “analyses”.

The Junkyard Of The Faker by Andrei Raevsky, self-deleted and also wildly overrated.

The Strategic Culture Foundation: articles of a distinctly uneven nature.

South Front: ditto.

Big Serge: Fundamentally useless since paywalled.

Armchair Warlord and Dr Snekotron on Twitter, since with Melon Husk’s changing of the Twitter settings you can’t read them without signing in anyway.

I may add more to the reading list if I find them worth it.

Meanwhile, take a look at these.