Statutory disclaimer: This article is meant as a
statement of opinion. It does not purport to be the final word on the subject
or in fact anything more than my personal opinion based on the research
materials available to me. On this topic there is no such thing as “right” or
“wrong” – there can only be opinions based on research.
Introduction:
For military historians and anyone
else interested in military history, there’s one recurrent point of controversy
which never quite seems to die down; one which, by its very nature, seems to
defy a final answer: which was the most
influential battle in history?
There are so many candidates for this
position that these discussions tend to devolve into lists, going by names as The Ten Greatest Battles In History or The Six Most Significant Battles In History.
Generally speaking, though, the same names tend to figure over and over, with
only the order varying; and usually the order varies according to the
nationality of the creator of the list.
That’s not very difficult to understand,
really; each person’s perception of the flow of history tends to have his own
nation at the centre. Thus if you ask an American which the most significant battle
of history was, his immediate candidates would be Yorktown and Gettysburg,
perhaps with the Battle of the Bulge or (maybe) Pearl Harbour added in. A
Russian would instantly name Stalingrad. If the person is British, you’d more
likely than not find the Battle of Hastings up there sharing company with maybe
El Alamein and probably the Battle of Britain.
However, being from a nation whose battles –
while often extremely bloody – have never, in even the most inflamed
imagination, made the slightest dent in world history, I didn’t have any
national loyalties to adhere to. Also, I’m not a historian, but I do have some
knowledge of military history. So I decided to search for one battle that I
could identify as having influenced history more than any other – in my
opinion, of course. And I believe that there is such a battle. Not a very well
known one, but one which I believe had consequences out of all proportion to
its immediate effects.
This article is the result.
Before I go further, let me list and
explain the reasoning behind the parameters I used in arriving at my final
decision:
First, I meant battle, not war; a single clash of arms, whether as
part of a larger conflict or in isolation. Therefore I have not considered entire
wars – the two World Wars for instance are outside the scope of this
discussion, though the individual battles in them are very much so.
Second, I have considered the most influential battle in modern history, instead of in all
history; and by modern history I’ve placed a not-quite-arbitrary cut-off date
of 1850. This is why:
1.
There’s a fairly well-known
phenomenon called the inertia of history; meaning that in the course of
hundreds and thousands of years, the peaks and valleys of human happenstance
tend to get smoothed away as if they hadn’t ever existed. For instance, suppose
the ancient Egyptians had lost their battles against the Hyksos occupiers from
West Asia, who introduced the wheel to the heirs of the builders of the pyramids.
If the Hyksos had endured, the later part of Ancient Egyptian history would
probably have been rather different, but it’s difficult to see how Egypt’s role
in world history would have been, from this distance in time, much different
than it is now. The Hyksos would eventually have been either assimilated into
Egyptian civilisation or been overtaken by the Islamic conquest in the course
of time, and after that Egypt would have been pretty much as it is today.
As a comparison, one might consider the
European rediscovery of the Americas. Suppose someone took a time machine, went
back to 1490 and assassinated Christopher Columbus before he started off on his
voyage. Would the Americas have remained “undiscovered” by Europeans? Hardly – Leif
Ericsson had already reached them several hundred years ago, and someone else
would soon have started off on the same voyage that Columbus took. He might
have reached some other part of the American continent, but reach it he would
have.
Therefore, considering very long-ago
battles doesn’t make much sense to me; their effects, however significant at
the time, will have damped down over the centuries, or other forces of history
would have produced the same effects. I’ve considered only battles recent
enough that their effects haven’t yet been similarly damped out.
2.
I’ve decided on 1850 for a
reason; it’s about the first date from which we can assume the modern world to
have come into existence, with networks of telegraph cables connecting
continents and major events in one nation potentially affecting another, possibly
on the other side of the planet, within a relatively short period. Also, in
terms of battles, it marks the period of the first modern technology, with
steam-powered ships, the first submarines and machine guns, and the beginnings
of modern armies.
Accordingly, I won’t be considering
otherwise attractive candidates like the Hastings, Waterloo, Lepanto, Trafalgar
or my personal favourite, the Battle of Hattin.
Third, this article is about the most influential
battle in history in terms of long-duration effects. It is not about the biggest or bloodiest battle, or the most one-sided
one. Therefore, I’m not even considering Verdun, the Somme, Moscow or Berlin.
The first two were utterly insignificant in terms of their effect on the Great
War; the third is superficially attractive, but even had Moscow fallen the
Soviets would have beaten the Nazis in a war of attrition; and as for Berlin,
by the time Marshal Zhukov’s armour stormed the Reich Chancellery, the German
war was already over bar the final surrender.
Similarly, of the other battles I’ve
already mentioned, most can be dismissed. The Battle of Britain, for one, loses
its sheen once one acknowledges that Hitler never had any intention or
capability of invading the British home island; El Alamein is much touted as a “turning
point” of the war, but was one battle of a sideshow. North Africa had no effect
on the course of World War Two, which was primarily fought in Eastern Europe.
The Battle of the Bulge was fought after the Germans had already lost – at most
it hastened the end. And as for Pearl Harbour, by the time it occurred, the US
had been pretty much at war for several months anyway, with its ships escorting
British convoys and its war industry supplying the British Empire’s needs.
Franklin Roosevelt was itching to join in the war formally; Pearl Harbour gave
him the excuse. If it wasn’t for Pearl he would have found something else.
In the end, after considering several other
alternatives, I was left with only two real candidates: Gettysburg and one
other. Why I chose the other is something that ought to become obvious by the
conclusion of this article.
So here goes: my candidate for the most
influential battle of modern history is...
TANNENBERG
The
background:
At the time the First World War started in
1914, Germany was faced with war on two fronts: on the west, against France,
with Britain sending forces to bolster the French; and in the east, against the
great mass of Tsarist Russia.
Back in 1914, the map of Europe was rather
different to what it is now. There was no Poland; its territory was divided
between Germany and Russia. A large segment of Germany – East Prussia – stuck out
like an arm flung out to the east, with the Baltic Sea to the north and the
bulge of Russian Poland to the south. It would be elementary strategy, obvious
to the meanest military intelligence, that an attack from the south of that arm
– aiming at the “armpit” – would cut off Prussia from the rest of Germany and
inflict a significant strategic defeat on the Kaiser.
This was basically the plan of the Allies –
that the British and French would conduct a holding operation in the west while
the vast weight of the Russian army (the “Russian steamroller”) would be brought
into action from the east. The Russians had ten full armies available, more
troops than the Germans could muster on both fronts combined, but the problem
was that their logistics were extremely primitive. Motor transport was lacking,
the road network in the border area had been deliberately left undeveloped in
order to deter a German invasion, and the Russian railway lines did not share
the same gauge as the German, meaning that unless the former could capture
German locomotives and trains, they would be unable to use the railway once
they crossed the border.
Allied with these problems was the
incredible inefficiency, corruption and incompetence of the Tsarist system.
This isn’t the place to discuss that in detail, but the Russia of that time was
utterly feudal and this extended to the military. General Sukhomlinov, the
chief of the army and then Minister of War, owed his position to his penchant (vide
Alan Clark, Suicide of the Empires) for
telling entertaining stories to the royal family at parties. The remainder were
little better – court favourites and the children of the nobility, promoted for
their ability to look good in uniform. There were energetic officers, of course,
hardworking and sincere, but the system actively discouraged hard work and
sincerity.
Under them were the mass of troops that
made up the Tsarist army. They were almost all peasant conscripts, mostly
illiterate, and at that time, at the beginning of the war, conditioned to
believing in the Tsar as almost a divine figure. Their courage was by no means
lacking, but their weaponry and training were primitive, and their leadership
almost uniformly execrable. They were basically peasant cannon fodder, and
nothing more.
 |
| Russian Infantry Platoon, 1914 |
Communications were as bad as
everything else. The radio operators were unfamiliar with their equipment,
incompetent with their codes, and reduced to broadcasting secret orders in the
clear. The generals in the field often could not communicate directly with army
headquarters (Stavka). Officers frequently had difficulty communicating with
troops from remote corners of the Empire who did not speak Russian. The average
soldier, being usually illiterate, couldn’t read written orders or directions. It
was a mess.
On the opposing side was the Kaiser’s army.
The German army of 1914 had its own problems, including difficulties with
communication equipment and its own incompetent generals, but in comparison
with the Tsar’s forces it was far more ready for combat. And unlike the
Russians, who were fighting an offensive war with an army built up and suited
for defence, the Germans had laid down plans on what to do in case of a war on
two fronts. The Schlieffen Plan (named after its inventor) called for the French to be defeated quickly
in an offensive to the west of Paris, followed by troops to be shifted east
before the Russians could fully mobilise. Therefore the Germans had an army
prepared for offence, a railway network capable of moving troops rapidly from
front to front, and a plan to work with. The Russians had none of these things.
It’s difficult, at this distance of time,
to appreciate the utter casualness with which the ruling classes of Europe
launched the Great War. The Tsar, especially, seems to have looked at the war
as a path to personal glory – a way of compensating for two decades of
incompetence and ineffectuality on the throne. And so, instead of using his
army in the role for which it was suited, he flung it into an offensive against
Germany and, to the south, against Germany’s ally the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
The
offensive:
The Russian plan was relatively simple,
and, as I’d said, fairly predictable. The First Army (under General von
Rennenkampf – like many of the Russian officer corps, he was an ethnic German) was
to thrust into Prussia from the East, to tie down German forces. Meanwhile, the
Second Army under Samsonov was to attack to the north from the bulge of Russian
Poland, aiming to cut off the “arm” of Prussia by striking at the “armpit”.
Opposed to that was a single German army, the Eighth, which was numerically
much weaker than either of the Russian armies. The Germans were at that time
concentrating on knocking out the French, and had not anticipated that the
Russians would be able to mobilise and attack as swiftly as they in fact did.
The German Army commander in the East, General
von Prittwitz, was (according to Clark, Suicide
of the Empires) someone whose abiding obsession was food, and who was known
to all and sundry as der Dicke (“Fatso”).
As the Russian First Army advanced, scoring a victory over the Germans at Gumbinnen,
he panicked and ordered a retreat, effectively abandoning all of East Prussia. In response, General von Moltke, the chief of
the German General Staff, sacked him and replaced him with Field Marshal von
Hindenburg and General Ludendorff. They ordered the German forces retreating from
the First Army, at von Prittwitz’ orders, to detrain and redeploy to face
Samsonov’s Second Army.
Meanwhile, the Russian advance was hindered
by two factors. The first was the appalling logistics, which made it difficult
for Samsonov’s Second Army to advance. The second was the fact that Rennenkampf
and Samsonov had hated each other since the Russo-Japanese War of 1905; and
this was well known to the Germans, who based their strategy partly on their
assessment that the former was in no great hurry to help out the latter.
Indeed, instead of advancing rapidly after the victory at Gumbinnen, Rennenkampf’s
First Army halted in order to prepare for a German counterattack. Due to the
terrible communications, Samsonov did
not know of this, and expected to link up with Rennenkampf advancing from the
east. At the same time, because the Russians radio network sent out the orders
of the day uncoded – as already mentioned – the Germans knew the Russian deployments and planned movements in
advance. This is why they felt it justified to turn their forces towards
Samsonov, exposing their backs to Rennenkampf; they knew quite well he would
not take advantage of the opportunity, even though, as they said, “Rennenkampf
need only have closed with us, and we should have been beaten.”
This article is not intended to refight the
battle shot by shot, so it will not describe the various deployments, advances
and retreats in all details, but an overview of the action would be a good idea
before moving on to discuss its implications for modern history. Anyone who
wants a more detailed description can check here,
or here.
The
Battle:
On 22nd August 1914, Samsonov’s
forces encountered the German XX Corps and in a series of clashes drove it back
over the next several days. Meanwhile, the rest of the German Eighth Army
continued to deploy in positions on the flanks of the Second Army, having
confirmed from signal intercepts that Rennenkampf’s First Army would not make
any attempt to join up with the Second Army or come to its aid. The Second Army’s
own movements were similarly known to the Germans, again due to orders being
sent out on the radio in the clear; there’s evidence that even Hindenburg and
Ludendorff found it difficult to accept the full extent of the staggering stupidity
of the Russian commanders.
Starting from the 27th August,
the Germans advanced against both flanks of the Second Army, and by the 29th
had surrounded it east of the village of Tannenberg. Pounded ceaselessly by
artillery, by the time the battle ended on the 30th the Second Army
was almost completely annihilated, fewer than ten thousand of its soldiers
managing to retreat back to Russian Poland. The Eighth Army captured some 92000
prisoners and so much equipment that sixty trainloads were required to transfer
it back to Germany.
 |
| Russian PoWs after Tannenberg |
Of the two Russian commanders, Samsonov
vanished, and is thought to have shot himself to avoid having to report the
disaster to the Tsar.
Rennenkampf, who had made a belated and
ineffectual attempt to come to the aid of Samsonov after the Second Army had
already been surrounded, was himself now dangerously overextended. The German Eighth
Army was now free to deploy against him, and soon defeated the First Army at
the Masurian Lakes and drove its remnants back over the border.
The German victory was complete. Russian
troops would not invade German territory again until 1945.
The
Effects:
As I’ve said before, the Allied plan was
for the French and British to hold off the Germans in the west while the “Russian
steamroller” rolled over Germany from the east. Tannenberg, and the subsequent
Battle of the Masurian Lakes which was made possible by the victory at
Tannenberg, put a premature and permanent end to the Russian threat against
Germany for the duration of the war.
The Russian Army recovered to some extent
by 1915, but it was never again the force it had been before Tannenberg. It did
score some successes against Germany’s ally, the incompetently led
Austro-Hungarian Empire, and later against the Turks; but it could never stand
up again to the Germans. As the war went on, the Tsar was forced, step by step,
to abandon Russian Poland and retreat across what is now Belarus, the Baltic
States, and the Ukraine, until the Germans threatened the Imperial capital, St
Petersburg, itself.
Meanwhile, the defeats at the front caused
mass discontent at home as well. Back in 1914, in common with most of Europe,
the Russian upper and middle classes had greeted the war with enthusiasm and
joy. In fact, except for Lenin, who was in exile, and some other “defeatists” –
who argued that the war was illegal and stupid – even Bolsheviks like Stalin
patriotically supported the war at that stage. But as defeat followed defeat, prices
soared and food became scarce, the people turned against the Tsar, his German
wife, and the royal family with virtually universal hatred. By early 1917,
there were mass strikes in the cities, coupled with a complete collapse of the
military effort and this ultimately led to the Russian Revolution of February
1917. And that in turn paved the way for the Bolshevik Revolution of November.
However, Tannenberg had an unexpected side
effect. As I’ve said, the German plan was to knock out the French and British before
the Russians could get themselves organised, and they had launched a major
offensive in the West in accordance with the Schlieffen Plan. This didn’t go
quite according to plan, partly because of German Army Chief von Moltke’s
tinkering with the original template, and instead of a massacre of the French
Army, what happened was a series of battles collectively known as the First
Battle of the Marne. While this battle was still in progress, however, von
Moltke removed three infantry corps and a cavalry division from the Western
front and sent them east to reinforce the Eighth Army in East Prussia. They
arrived far too late to have any effect on the battle, but they did weaken the
Western Front so much that the First Battle of the Marne ended in a German
defeat.
The significance of the defeat on the Marne
was immediately appreciated by von Moltke himself, who told the Kaiser, “Your
Majesty, we have lost the war.” He knew that Germany did not have the resources
to fight a long war and had just lost the chance to secure a speedy victory,
which was the only way it could have won at all. However, since the Kaiser did
not see that fact, the war did not end at once; the retreating Germans dug into
the fields of Flanders, and the next three years passed in trench warfare,
poison gas attacks, and mass assaults across the shell-shattered wastes of
no-man’s land. For anyone who wants a more detailed description of that, I’d recommend that you go ahead
and read Erich Maria Remarque’s All Quiet
On The Western Front. Open mobile warfare, as at Tannenberg and the Marne,
would not be seen again on the Western Front until the last months of 1918.
The effects of the slaughter in the
trenches can hardly be overestimated. Back in 1914, Europe had still been a
very 19th Century society, with strict social stratification between
the gentry and the working class. But the war ended that. By the time it ended,
the upper classes, which had traditionally supplied the officer corps, had been
virtually destroyed. Egalitarianism was there to stay, both in the battlefield
and off it. The Twentieth Century was born in the trenches of the Western
Front.
By 1917, then, the nations of Western
Europe had almost bled themselves white after years of fruitless trench warfare.
The Great Hope in Britain and France, now that the Russians were clearly
finished, was the US. And though the Americans were at the time a financial and
industrial power, they not particularly militarily significant; the doughboys
of the US Army had to train on wooden guns, and the nascent Army Air Force was
equipped with aeroplanes bought from France.
Still, President Wilson was as desperate to
enter the war as the British and French were desperate to entice him into it,
and finally by 1917 he had managed to “manufacture consent” enough to be able
to declare war on Germany. US forces would not be in France in strength until
1918, just about in time to participate in the offensives that attended the
final German collapse. In other words, the US took part in the victory without
having much of a role in the fighting that led up to it. And while the British
and the French suffered appalling casualties amongst their young males, the
American losses were relatively minor. If anything, it was the taste of victory
in the First World War which led to American militarism and the Empire.
And on the East, the Russian Civil War and
the Bolshevik victory caused its own mass social churning. The defeated and
prostrate Russia of 1917 was gone, but a new Russia was rising on its ruins.
Whether it was a good or bad force in the history of the world can be something
endlessly debatable, but one thing can’t be denied – it was the first time
Russia would emerge as a technologically and socially modern country.
Meanwhile, the embitterment that resulted
from four years of war could not be shaken off easily. The Treaty of
Versailles, imposed on a defeated Germany by Britain and France, compelled that
nation to take on itself the entire blame of the war and pay “reparations” –
which in turn caused mass hardship in a Germany awash with demobilised soldiers
and right-wing militia. It was the ideal situation for political extremism, and
one such ex-soldier soon made a name for himself, ultimately making his mark in
history. His name was Adolf Hitler.
Everyone pretty much knows what happened
after that.
Why
Tannenberg matters:
It is in the nature of discussions of this
sort that the only way to understand the significance of a particular event is
to ask what would have happened if it had gone another way – to consider an
alternate-history scenario.
So let’s see what might have happened if
the Russians had won in East Prussia, as they very easily might have, despite
all their shortcomings.
If Samsonov and Rennenkampf had captured
East Prussia, they would have dealt a shattering political blow to the German
Empire. Prussia was the seat of German militarism, the home of the Junker class
which supplied the German officer corps, and the leading component of the
princely states which comprised the Germany of the day. At the same time, the defeat
on the Marne would have meant simultaneous German defeats on both fronts – something not even the Kaiser
could have ignored. It’s more than likely that the war could have ended in
September 1914 via some kind of political settlement. The First World War, as
historians know, was one of the least necessary wars ever fought, borne of
competing egos and webs of military alliances more than existential threats. It
would not have been very hard to abort it in 1914.
If the war had ended in 1914, what might
have happened? In no particular order of importance, I can think of these:
First of all, the Old Europe – the one of
class stratification and feudalism – would have endured, perhaps to this day.
What is certain is that the bitterness that came with the trench warfare of
1915-16, the poison gas and pointless bloodletting, would not have happened.
There would have been no unequal Versailles Treaty, no Weimar Republic, no
fascist militia and no Führer
Adolf Hitler. There would, in turn, have been no Second World War in the form
we know today, and therefore no weakening of the old imperialist powers to the
point where they would have to begin letting the colonies go. Without the First
World War, there would not have been the decolonisation of the late forties to
the late sixties.
Secondly,
the decaying Ottoman Empire was not involved in the war in 1914. Most of West
Asia between Suez and Iran was then still Ottoman territory, including what are
today Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the so-called state of “Israel”. It’s unlikely
that the Ottoman Empire would have lasted very much longer, but its fall would
not have meant the takeover of its Arab colonies by the British and French.
There would have been no British mandate in Palestine, no Balfour Declaration, and
almost certainly no Zionazi pseudostate.
Then, of course, Tsarism would have survived
in Russia. Nikolai II would have remained on his throne, his position
strengthened by his victory in the war. He would have felt emboldened to snuff
out the political reforms he had been compelled to permit after the Russian
Revolution of 1905, and would have returned to full autocracy. Lenin would have
remained a powerless agitator in Swiss exile; there would have been no Communist
Soviet Union. And in turn, the effect on the rest of the world, including
nations like China, would have been profound.
The effect on the US would have been
scarcely any less. If the war had ended speedily in 1914, there would have been
no American intervention in Europe, and the US would most likely have confined
its own imperial longings to the Western Hemisphere. It would still have been
an economic and industrial powerhouse, but it would not have been a
militaristic empire.
And
this is why I consider Tannenberg far more significant than Gettysburg. The latter battle may have preserved the unity of the US; I don’t
really know enough about American history to judge that. But, as I’ve said, if
the war had ended in 1914, it would not have mattered in the slightest whether
the United States would have been one nation or two, because its effect on
world history would have been infinitesimal.
Technologically, too, the Great War left an
indelible mark on civilisation. War seems to bring out the innovator in
humanity, and it was after 1915 that aviation took off, so to say, in a big
way, and aircraft became something more than curiosities. The first tanks that
clattered across the battlefields, the submarines that set off to ambush
battleships, the innovations in electronic communication – all that advanced
tremendously during the years of the war. They would probably still have
occurred in a time of peace, but much more slowly. No Great War means no Second
World War, and that means no Cold War, and therefore no Global War of Empire;
there might of course have been other wars, other conflicts, but their shapes
would not have been the same, and their effects would not have been the same.
I’m not saying the world would have been a better place if the Russians had won at Tannenberg.
Nobody who knows anything about the Tsarist system could ever imagine that.
But the world would have been very, very
different.
