In the winter of
2018-19, Narendrabhai Damodardas Modi is going to start a war with Pakistan.
Back in 2013 - a
year before Modi had taken over – I had written a long fiction piece called Armageddon: The India-Pakistan War of 2019.
To this day it remains the most “popular” (if hits and abuse can be counted as
popularity) thing I have ever written. You can read it here.
But that was back
when I’d imagined it was fiction. Now I am almost convinced I was making a
prediction.
Here is why.
Three years after
its inception, the Modi project is in a state of collapse. The economy has
plumbed rock bottom, courtesy Modi's Great Glorious Demonetisation Jamboree and
his General Sales Tax fiasco. Unemployment has reached stratospheric levels.
Small businesses - the core of Modi's party's historical support base - are
closing down in huge numbers. Farmers are in a state of open revolt. Lynch mobs
murdering people on the excuse of protecting cows aren't going to miraculously
open those closed brick kilns and textile factories back up. Things are so bad
that even Modi - on one of his rare visits to the country between trips to
Vancouver and Vanuatu - has been reduced to boasting that his government was
still not as bad as the previous one. That's the sum total of his "achievements"
in 3½ years - that he is head of a government which, he claims, isn't as bad as
the previous one.
Elections in
multiple states, including Modi's home state of Gujarat, are coming up, and the
outlook isn't good for Modi's Bhaktonazi Jumla Party (actual name, Bharatiya
Janata Party: Bhakts are Modi’s
Hindunazi worshippers, and Jumla
means broken promise). At the least,
even if they hang on to power in those states, it will be with a bare majority.
And that in turn will finally, probably, galvanise the so far incredibly
incompetent and disorganised opposition parties to get their act together and
unite.
National elections
are due in spring 2019. It's hardly likely that Modi will cut his own term in
power - not to speak of his taxpayer funded foreign trips - short by calling
early elections, though that would be the smart thing to do at this juncture,
before things get even worse for him and before said opposition has a chance to
unite. So he will sit glowering over a 2018 which will reduce his chances in
the 2019 election with every passing day.
What is the only
thing which might save him? A war with Pakistan, which can be spun as a
"victory", with the opposition either being compelled to acknowledge
him as a "victor" or be branded as traitors.
This war will not
face opposition from the military, because Modi has made sure to place a right
wing blowhard in the chief of staff of the Army's spot, superseding two senior
generals. The air force will do whatever Modi says and the navy is a ceremonial
force of no significance. It is the army that counts.
This war will be
meant to be of short duration, for these reasons:
1. The longer the
war lasts the higher the bloodshed, and the less easy to pretend it is a
victory.
2. The longer the
war lasts, the greater the chances of a clear battlefield defeat. Destroyed
armoured divisions and piles of Indian corpses can't be concealed from the
populace in the internet age.
3. The longer the
war lasts, the greater the chances that it will go nuclear, with catastrophic
consequences for Modi's home state of Gujarat, which is the westernmost Indian
state and just across the border from Pakistan.
4. The longer the
war lasts, the greater the chances of international pressure enforcing a
humiliating Indian backing down. That would defeat the purpose of starting the
war in the first place.
5. The longer the
war lasts, the greater the economic costs and the chances of a total crash,
which again would defeat the purpose of starting it at all.
Also this will
have to be a visible war, one that is
actually fought, not a fictional "surgical strike" which would mean
nothing to anyone except the Modifellating Bhaktonazi fan base, who would
support Modi anyway.
Therefore the Modi
regime will plan for a short duration war, one fought as much in the television
studios with the help of screeching rabid Bhaktonazi propagandamongers like
Arnab Cowswamy as on the battlefield. The Indian Army already has a plan for such
a war in place; it's called the "Cold Start Doctrine" and envisages a
sudden Blitzkrieg invasion of Pakistani territory, to capture objectives close
to the border, "punish" Pakistan, and withdraw quickly.
The timing of this
war will also be important. It must be fought in the winter, for these reasons:
1. The end of the
harvesting season, which will mean that farmlands can be sown with mines and
run over with armoured vehicles without too much disruption of agriculture.
2. In winter,
Kashmir is snowed in and a Pakistani counteroffensive there won't happen. Mass
public demonstrations can also be contained more readily than in the summer.
3. The timing is
right, just long enough before the 2019 election for Modi to pose as a victor
but not long enough for the costs of the war to come home to roost, in both
economic and political terms; before people become aware that they have won
nothing at all.
So, will it work?
I believe it will
be a disaster. The Cold Start Doctrine isn't secret; Pakistan is aware of it as
much as India is, and their spy services are far superior to ours. They'll know
what's coming before the first Indian tank clatters across the border in the
Rajasthan desert.
Why the Rajasthan
desert? Because that's the only place where the border isn't fortified to the
teeth and an Indian Blitzkrieg has any chance of penetrating Pakistani
defences, that's why.
So the Pakistanis
will know when the attack is coming, where it's coming, and they've already
prepared for it both militarily and politically.
Militarily,
Pakistan has acquired short range missiles with low yield battlefield nukes,
which they can and will use on Indian armoured divisions in the desert. They
will have to use them because with India's military superiority Pakistan can't
fight a long duration war with success, and can't afford defeat without the
real threat of disintegration. India has no equivalent weapons, and can only
retaliate with city-level nukes on Pakistani urban centres. Can it? Will it,
with all the consequences, not excluding retaliation by Pakistan on Indian
cities? Or will it quietly withdraw, both sides pretending the battlefield
nuclear strikes never happened?
Politically,
Pakistan is aggressively wooing Russia, and with considerable success; if the
Modi regime imagines it can balance that with an alliance with Amerikastan, it
is considerably mistaken. Simple geography, given its proximity to Afghanistan,
Iran, and Central Asia, means Pakistan will always be of greater importance to
Warshington than India; and no Amerikastani president will want to commit
suicide for the greater glory of the Bhaktonazi project in South Asia.
But reality isn't
a factor with Nazis, never has been; so expect some kind of "terrorist
attack" - genuine or staged - in December 2018/January 2019, followed by
an Indian attack on Pakistan, followed by nuclear war.
The Oracle has
spoken.
