Friday, 16 May 2014

The Votes Roll In

So today is der Tag. The counting of votes starts at 8 am, less than half an hour from now. By 12 noon we should more or less have a clear idea which way it's going to go, though final tallies will only come in at five this evening or thereabouts. 

I can see the following scenarios:

1. (Most likely): The Hindunazi National "Democratic" Alliance (BJP + allies) gets 250 to 270 seats, 10 to 20 less than a majority. They have to depend on other parties to form a government. 

Why this is the least bad case scenario: Because the worst impulses of the Hindunazis will be kept in check by the necessity to keep the alliance intact. Some kind of modus vivendi will have to be evolved. 

2. (Less likely): The NDA gets fewer than 240 seats. An unstable alliance led by the - severely weakened - Congress comes to power.

Why this is a worse-case scenario: Rampant, unchecked corruption as the Congress keeps allies happy by allowing them to loot at will, just as in the last government. Total lack of policy and administration. 

3. (About the same chances as 2): NDA as above. The Congress supports a "Third Front" alliance of disparate parties to form a government. 

Why this is a terrible scenario: This experiment has been tried several times before. In every case the government has quickly collapsed due to infighting, and the Congress has withdrawn support whenever it imagines that it might benefit from fresh elections.

4. (Hopefully Least Likely): The NDA gets over 300 seats, and the BJP itself gets around 280 - enough to form a government on its own, even without its allies.

Why this is positively the worst-case scenario: We're going to have an out and out Hindu fascist dictatorship. Especially as the hollowness of the Hindunazis' electoral promises becomes manifest, and people begin to turn against them, the regime will crack down on all dissent and criticism. All opponents will be labelled "traitors" or "Maoists". There will be a deliberate attempt to permanently divide the population on communal lines so people vote for the Nazis out of fear.

Let me say that the Hindunazi electoral campaign is basically a marketing gimmick. Under no circumstances can they last even six months of rule without alienating the very people who will have voted them into power. If the Hindunazis are running a minority government with the support of allies, they can blame their non-performance on the allies. But if they have a government of their own, they will also own the failures of that government. And the realities of the national situation, plus the inevitable ego and power struggles inside the Hindunazi edifice itself, make failure inevitable.

At this juncture, the Hindunazis will need scapegoats. Pakistan is an obvious choice, but Pakistan can’t be blamed for bad roads or the lack of water, power, or employment. So the scapegoats will be internal – like those of us opposed to Hindunazism. And if things get too bad, there’s always the option of starting a “limited” war with Pakistan to keep the country distracted and paint all critics with the brush of treason.

Supporters of Hindunazi chief Narendrabhai Modi, in masks in his image. Talk about personality cults!

There is, of course, a fifth scenario:

5. The Congress maintains or increases its current seat level, and manages to form a government on its own or with its current allies.

Comment: This is not going to happen.

None of these scenarios is good, you'll note. But that's daymockcrazy in the 21st century. 



  1. I don't have anything helpful to say, except that I wish you and your countrymen the best. I hope your least bad scenario has a chance of turning into actual hope going forward. Keep us posted.

  2. As always, thank you for keeping me informed. Good luck - if that's the word.

  3. Bill, As in the U.S., there is either a bad or a badder alternative. In America, we get to vote for war or more war and usually it's the so-called 'liberals', like the current Piece Prezident, who are the most enthusiastic killers. We really appreciate your articles about the Indian elections. Otherwise, we'd be un- or misinformed. We'll be keeping an eye on the vote count.

  4. Looks like the worst has come to pass.

    1. Yeah, and almost to the exact seat count I had anticipated as the worst case scenario. In fact, if the Hindunazis had got about fifty more seats, they'd have been a mite less dangerous. Let's see how long the honeymoon period lasts. My prediction stays at six months or less.

  5. Bill, Sorry to say that your "beloved" (I am being snarky/sarcastic here as I know you totally despise them) BJP has gained about 279 seats on their own. No need to form any sort of "coalition" gummint at all.
    Oh boy, you folks may be in for a long, bumpy ride. Please let us know how you fair under this "new" gummint.
    Don't feel like the Lone Ranger though. As has been stated above, here is the US of A things are not that much better. Our (ig)Nobel Piece Prizident is even worse than W. Shrub/Mr. 5 Deferments. Yeah, hard to imagine isn't it? and yet, look at what the Drone King has done since he took office way back in January 2009. Yes, MORE idiotic, damn fool, useless wars, not all with US/NATO "boots on the ground" either, see Libya for example. Now the Prizident has his sights on Ukraine. What a goddamn moron we have as our "dear leader". Maybe he and Kim in North Korea were actually brothers separated at birth.
    Stay safe Bill, I hope you and yours are well.


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