Thursday 20 July 2023

The End Of The Grain Deal And The Kerch Bridge Explosions


By now anyone remotely interested in the conflict in Ukranazistan will be aware that Russia terminated the Grain Deal that’s been in effect since 22 July 2022 and which allowed Ukranazistan to export grain from Odessa. In all probability the majority of those who are aware of it will have been made awar of it by the media shrieking that this will cause starvation in poor countries.

Will it?

This article,[1] for instance, ends with:

"Terminating the grain deal will only bring higher food costs and shortages for countries that import agricultural products from Ukraine."

Here's the truth about where the grain from Ukranazistan goes:[2] 

"China has been the main destination for cargo exports of Ukrainian grain at 8 million tonnes, followed by Spain at 6 million tonnes and Turkey at 3.2 million tonnes."

Only 2.5% of Ukrainian grain went to poor or developing countries according to the UN official data.

Low-income countries received 2.5% of the over 32 million tonnes of grain exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, according to figures by the United Nations (UN).

Of the 6 million tonnes sent to Spain, the vast majority went to feed pigs to make jamon

The majority of the 3.2 million tonnes to Erdoğanistan was processed into flour and sent right back to Ukranazistan. 

So, no, it won't. 

In fact, it won’t even significantly raise wheat prices, as Moon Of Alabama points out: [3]

“More wheat is coming to the markets from other producers than Ukraine. During the next year, even without grain from Ukraine, prices for wheat and corn may actually come down:

World wheat supplies are strong following exceptionally high exports from Australia and Russia and a rebound in Canadian shipments after droughts disrupted last year’s season. After falling for years, global stocks may finally rise in 2023. As for corn, Ukraine’s shortfall may well be filled by expected record sales from Brazil, reckons Alexis Ellender of Kpler, a data firm.

So this is much ado about nothing. Globally Ukraine just isn't important at all.”

Of course you wouldn’t know this from the usual media suspects, whose primary purpose is to blame Russia for everything.

If there is anything Russia is to be blamed for, it’s for signing the grain deal in the first place.

What were the terms of the grain deal? Ships from Odessa and Nikolayev would carry Ukranazistani grain – wheat and maize – to Erdoğanistan (that’s Turkey to you) where it would be inspected by Russian and Turkish officials to ascertain that there were no military supplies on board, after which it would be shipped on elsewhere.

In return Russian grain would be allowed free movement, Russian ammonia pipelines to fertiliser factories would be permitted uninterrupted, and Russia would be reconnected to SWIFT.

Predictably, none of that happened. It is astonishing that anyone could imagine that it would have happened, but Putin’s capacity to be deceived by his Western “partners” seems almost limitless.

Well, I said almost, but with any luck that limit has finally been reached.

It was not just that the Ukranazis’ Western masters did not follow through on their own commitments to the grain deal: they used it to arrange both the partly successful attacks on the Kerch Bridge, the one last year and the one a few days ago.

Here’s how the bridge blast by an explosives-rigged lorry last year went, as pieced together by Russian intelligence:

A Ukranazi ship loaded with explosives sailed out of Odessa as part of the grain deal, but instead of going south to Erdoğanistan it turned west and sailed up the Danube to an inland port in Bulgaria.There it unloaded its explosives, which by a circuitous route went through Georgia into Russia, where it was transferred to the final lorry (whose driver had no idea what he was carrying) for shipment to Crimea across the Kerch bridge. Once on the bridge, the lorry was exploded by a remote controlled detonator.

This kind of thing is no longer possible, since every vehicle is now X rayed and searched before being allowed on the bridge. Multiple attempts at missile strikes on the bridge since then by the Ukranazis with their Brutish-supplied Storm Shadow missiles have also failed against the now heavy and layered Russian air defences. So the Ukranazis’ Western masters had to step in directly.

The second attack on the Kerch Bridge was carried out by Brutish underwater drones released from a civilian dry goods bulk carrier cargo ship, sailing as part of the Grain Deal, off Snake Island. This followed Brutish plans to destroy the bridge [4] hatched over months. Instead of destroying it, though, they managed to cause actually rather less extensive damage than the lorry bomb attempt. While one span of the road bridge was broken, the other was undamaged, and the far more important railway bridge untouched. [5] Military traffic to Crimea was not affected at all.

What the Ukranazis and their NATO masters managed to do was murder a holidaying couple [6] and put their 14-year-old daughter Angelina in a coma. This has not unnaturally led to fury among Russian forces, and writing “For Angelina” on shells being fired at the Ukranazis.

It has also led to many of the blueyellow-ragwagging nazi worshippers online revealing just what kind of hate-filled vermin [7] they are. Consider this character:


It is allegedly a teacher.

Fortunately, this one was so stupid as to post under its real name, and has been speedily doxxed, with everything including its address, email, and phone number exposed:


Hopefully it will soon receive a visit from several large biker/trucker types. From reading online comment fora I’m led to believe there’s a lot of sympathy among that demographic for Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia is making sure the Ukranazis and their NATOstani masters won’t be able to sneak grain (or “grain”) ships into and out of Ukranazistan by reducing the Odessa port facilities to scrap.[8]

In return for relatively minor damage inflicted to the Kerch Bridge, I don’t know if the Ukranazis and their NATO masters still think it’s been worth it.

 If it means Putin has been finally disillusioned about his western "partners", it's not been worth it at all.












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