Tuesday, 13 August 2013

Armageddon: the India-Pakistan War of 2019

A tale of the not too distant future...



Background:

January 2019. The right-wing, Hindu nationalist led Indian government of Prime Minister Narendrabhai
Modi is in serious trouble. Steadily rising prices, widespread unemployment, and economic stagnation have seriously hurt the government’s image. The nation has yet to recover from the devastating drought of 2017, which badly hit agriculture and brought millions to the brink of starvation. A series of corruption scandals in the top echelons of the prime minister’s own Bharatiya Janata Party have also badly tarnished Modi’s own image as a clean politician.


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi


With elections due in May, the government is on the ropes. Sensing blood, the opposition parties - hitherto in disarray - have started to put together a ramshackle alliance. The political scene is in turmoil.

Meanwhile, internationally, the scene in South Asia has changed drastically. After the withdrawal of all American forces from Afghanistan in late 2017, with the last troops literally pulling out in the middle of the night without prior warning, the government in Kabul quickly imploded. The country fairly rapidly split into two, with a Taliban-dominated government taking over the southern, Pashtun-settled area. In the north, a Russian-aligned rump state clings on to the Hazara, Uzbek and Tajik majority zones, but for all practical purposes the main part of Afghanistan is again controlled by the Taliban.

The US, which until recently controlled the entire land mass between the Central Asian ‘stans and the Arabian Sea, has lost interest in the area completely following its withdrawal. The Great Depression of 2016-17 has hit it hard, and made it concentrate on more profitable sections of its global empire. For the moment, it’s a non-player in South Asia.

For Pakistan, the Taliban victory in Afghanistan has proved to be a mixed blessing. While the defence establishment still thinks that the Taliban Afghan state is an ally which provides strategic depth to Pakistan, the defeat of the US at the hands of the Afghan Taliban has encouraged the Pakistani Pashtuns to demand re-integration with their brethren in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban has launched several offensives, and in mid-2018 briefly took over Peshawar before being driven back. Meanwhile, the long-standing Balochistan rebellion against the Islamabad government is still simmering, and several military bases have been attacked in recent months.

As far as the Indian intelligence agency, RAW, is concerned, the temptation to meddle and bleed Pakistan has proved irresistible. While it has been arming and funding the Balochi insurgents for many years, it has recently sent a limited number of weapons to the Pakistani Taliban as well, on their pledge that they would only attack Pakistani installations and not turn their guns on Indian interests. The Pakistani government has retaliated by stepping up support to the flagging Kashmir insurgency, and by training and funding the Islamic Mujahideen, Student’s Islamic Movement of India, and other domestic Muslim terror groups in India.

Politically, too, the Pakistani government of Nawaz Sharif, which only just retained power in a deeply controversial election, is in trouble. Pakistan’s economy, without the injection of American funds, is in even worse shape than India’s, and public frustration is growing.

Prominent young liberal opposition politician Arsalan Ghumman has called for a rolling series of protests to drive Sharif from power. Large demonstrations have taken place in the streets of Lahore and Karachi, and
many of these have been targeted by gunmen and bombs; most Pakistanis, who believe Nawaz Sharif “stole” the last election, think that these attacks have been orchestrated by the government to crush dissent. Arsalan Ghumman and several of his supporters are arrested and spirited away to an unknown destination; all this does is provoke more demonstrations demanding his immediate release.


Arsalan Ghumman


For both India and Pakistan, then, January 2019 is a time of steeply escalating internal tensions, with deeply unpopular governments looking for a way to survive.



The Provocation:

 9.30 a.m., 26 January: As India celebrates its Republic Day with a massive military parade marching through the centre of Delhi, a number of coordinated car bombs – thirteen in all – go off in Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Nagpur, killing at least 700 people and injuring well over 2000. The news of the bomb explosions reaches Prime Minister Modi (who also holds the Defence portfolio) as he is watching the parade in the company of President Lal Krishna Advani and the Chief Guest, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka. Modi immediately leaves the venue for his office, and calls a crisis committee meeting, attended by top government ministers and bureaucrats.



Meanwhile, the private TV channels interrupt the telecast of the parade for breaking-news footage of the blasts, including gory images of victims lying in pools of their own blood. By mid-morning, shrill-voiced commentators on the TV screens have begun openly blaming Pakistan for the bombs and demanding immediate retaliatory action, including bombing “terrorist training camps”. In the late afternoon, the first demonstrators are on the streets of Delhi, waving placards and assaulting any Muslims they can find. The police seem unwilling to hold them back.

NDTV 24X7, one of the channels which clamoured shrilly for war


At seven that evening, Modi makes a televised statement to the nation, appealing for calm, and claiming that the government will hold those responsible “accountable”. This fails to satisfy the demonstrators, who burn Modi in effigy alongside Nawaz Sharif. An abortive attempt is made to storm the Pakistan High Commission.

The Pakistani government, in the person of the foreign minister, issues a statement condemning the blasts and denying responsibility; it further offers a joint probe with India to investigate the bombings. Indian media immediately denounce the offer as “a thief offering to investigate his own burglary.” The Indian government ignores the offer completely.

At midnight, Modi, in his capacity as Defence Minister, holds a second meeting, this one attended by the military top brass as well as civilian officials. The Prime Minister says that some kind of military measures will have to be taken against Pakistan, in order to cool down public anger. In private, he and the Cabinet have already decided that a short war against Pakistan will not only satisfy the hawks but also regain public popularity and help win the coming election.

In order to lull Pakistani suspicions, the government decides not to break off diplomatic relations. The attack will be launched as soon as possible, to catch the Pakistanis by surprise.

The military position:

Ever since the military fiasco of 2001-2, when India had taken a full four weeks to mobilise forces after the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, the Indian armed forces had decided on a so-called Cold Start doctrine. Though, officially, the Cold Start doctrine did not exist, it called for rapid mobilisation and concentration of strike forces at the border so as to be able to launch a short-duration invasion of Pakistan within 48 hours of receiving orders. The idea is to attack, hit the enemy hard and get out before any international intervention can be organised.

On paper, the Indians are overwhelmingly stronger than the Pakistanis, but this is rather diluted by the facts on the ground. While the common soldiers on both sides are well-trained and highly professional, the two armies are both completely dependent on their officers for leadership, and actively discourage initiative. Both sides have made efforts to modernise, but shortage of funds and jockeying for favour between the services means that neither has managed to do so with great success. Besides, India has a much larger land mass to protect, and a great part of its forces are permanently deployed against China. On the other hand, the Pakistani officer corps is tainted by politics and Islamicisation, while India's is both apolitical in the junior ranks, and strictly secular. 

In a short war, both sides will have virtual parity, and it will come down to tactics and innovation to decide who wins.

The military plan involves air strikes against training camps in the Pakistani occupied part of Kashmir, and also on the Pakistani air force’s bases to keep it off balance and unable to retaliate. Meanwhile, the army’s strike formations will launch armoured thrusts across the international border in Punjab and Rajasthan. The attack across the Rajasthan frontier, directed at Multan, will be a diversion, intended to distract the Pakistanis from the main assault, which will be across the Punjab border and against Lahore. The plans call for the capture of Lahore within 48 hours, followed by a speedy withdrawal. A suggestion for a secondary thrust against the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad is turned down as being too provocative and ambitious.

The plans make it clear that the entire war is to be concluded within six days, beyond which – according to the Indian army – the Pakistanis are liable to be tempted to use nuclear weapons. The navy, in the meantime, will launch attacks on the port of Karachi, using Harrier VTOL jets from the aircraft carrier Viraat. The second aircraft carrier, Vikramaditya, is at the moment in the port of Visakhapatnam, on the other side of the India, and will take too long to reach the war zone. The third carrier, Vikrant, is still fitting out at Cochin and months from being ready for combat.

On the government side, the advantage of a short war is that it is the only sort of military engagement which can be concluded with a minimum of economic pain. With each tank shell costing as much as a working-class family earns in a month, a longer conflict means economic disaster. Besides, a short war can be presented as a victory, and by the time the effects are noticed the elections will be over.

After swearing all present to the strictest of secrecy, the government issues the necessary orders.

The Indian soldier - well-trained and professional, but lacking individual initiative and with aging equipment.

Pakistani troops - outnumbered by the Indians, their military leadership is politicised and tainted by Islamicisation.

 The Pakistani preparation:

The Pakistani armed forces are far from unaware of the existence of Cold Start, and have gone into high alert as soon as they received news of the bomb blasts in India. Though the Pakistani armed forces are much smaller than the Indian, they have lesser territory to defend, and can concentrate faster owing to the lesser distance of Pakistani communications centres from the border; in addition, the Indian swift assault plan means that only a small, highly mobile part of the Indian armed forces will be used.

Also, the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, is much more efficient than the Indian. Before dawn on the 27th, it has already picked up news of the midnight meeting in Delhi. Although it doesn’t know what happened at the meeting, the Pakistani army high command decides to put its troops on combat alert, without waiting for permission from Nawaz Sharif.

By late afternoon on the 27th, ISI agents – some of them disguised as tea sellers and labourers in and around Indian cantonments – begin sending in coded messages that Indian strike corps have begun making preparations for immediate movement. As soon as darkness falls, long lines of tanks and armoured personnel carriers rattle down the highways towards the Pakistan border. Their plan is to be in position to attack before dawn on the 29th.

Quietly but with desperate speed, the Pakistani army command begins making its own preparations. As yet, the civilian Pakistani government is out of the loop. Only when the troop movements are too far advanced to be reversible, the generals decide, will Nawaz Sharif be informed.

The ISI also quickly evacuates the terrorist training camps in the Kashmir mountains. If the Indians strike the camps, they will be bombing little more than empty tents and abandoned firing ranges.


A militant training camp in Pakistani Kashmir


 Meanwhile, the Pakistani military’s Nuclear Command Authority begins moving part of its atomic weaponry out of its fortified bases and integrating warheads with their delivery systems. The generals will not inform Nawaz Sharif of this at all.

Meanwhile, in India:

Since the plans to attack Pakistan are top secret, the government has kept insisting that it will punish those responsible. Public anger, stoked by private TV channels competing with each other for ratings, is boiling over. Large demonstrations have taken place in several cities across North and West India. Several violent incidents, targeting Muslims, have taken place. Curfew has been imposed in Delhi, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad, where the worst riots occurred.

On the evening of the 28th, Modi again goes on TV to declare that decisive action will soon be taken against “those responsible” for the bombings, and that he will make another statement in the morning. Though his comments are meant to assuage domestic anger, the Pakistanis decide that this is final proof that an Indian attack will be launched during the course of the night. Their own armoured corps move out of their bases and begin to deploy to meet the threat.

The Indian troop concentration has not gone completely according to plan. Some brigades equipped with the Arjun main battle tank have been unable to reach their jumping off points because the tanks are too heavy to use most bridges and too wide to fit railway flatbeds. Meanwhile, many of the aging T-72s have broken down in the Rajasthan desert, so that the armoured formations are seriously under-strength. The army’s commanders hold another meeting with Modi just after midnight, and suggest a day’s delay. However, the Russian ambassador has already sent in a message asking about Indian troop movements and warning about hasty actions, and it’s obvious that the preparations can’t be kept secret any longer. A day’s delay might be too late, Modi says, and orders the attack to go ahead as planned.

The name of the operation is decided at this meeting. It will be called Operation Badla – Operation Revenge.

The Attack:

At half past four in the morning of 29th January, Indian Air Force Mirage 2000, Rafale and Sukhoi 30 MKI aircraft take off from forward airbases and fly at treetop height over the frontier. By five, air raid sirens are going off in Islamabad and Lahore, while the flashes of bomb explosions light up the horizon and startled residents blink awake in the freezing cold. Pakistani anti-aircraft guns and surface to air missiles attempt to counter the Indian attack with only partial success; just four planes are brought down. However, the Indian attack fails to damage the PAF substantially, since the Pakistanis had moved their aircraft away to satellite airbases and underground shelters. A second wave of strikes, against the already evacuated terrorist training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, achieves precisely nothing.

Just as the first Indian Air Force planes return from their strikes, Indian 155mm Bofors artillery guns and multi-barrelled rocket launchers open up a withering barrage on known Pakistani positions across the frontier. As lines of T-90 and T-72 tanks roll forward, the barrage lifts ahead of them, hitting roads and railway junctions in an effort to stop the Pakistanis either withdrawing or reinforcing their positions. By dawn, the first line of Pakistani defences have been overrun at relatively little cost, and columns of prisoners are being sent to the rear, to be photographed by hastily organised TV crews from pro-government channels. By the time Modi goes on TV at eight in the morning, the news has already gone out: the nation is at war, and to all appearances it is winning.

The Indian thrusts towards Lahore and Multan. The border of Kashmir in this map is the de facto one, not as claimed by either of the two countries.

But the prisoners the Indians have taken are Rangers – border guards – not regular army, and the air strikes have caused far less damage than anticipated. By mid-morning, Pakistan’s J-10 and F-16 fighters are engaging Indian MiG-29s over Lahore and Kashmir. The armour has begun to get bogged down too. A huge dust storm reduces visibility to almost zero, causing hours of delay to the southern flank of the Indian assault, which is aimed across the desert at Multan. Meanwhile, the northern arm of the attack, against Lahore, runs into hastily laid minefields, which disable many of the tanks. Others are tied down by small but determined teams of anti-tank missile operators in camouflaged trenches in the middle of the minefields. Artillery has to be brought up to destroy these positions one by one before the mines can be cleared.

The plan goes awry:

By the evening of the 29th, it’s already evident that the Indian timetable has gone awry, and that Lahore can’t be captured on schedule – the armoured spearheads still have to break through the main lines of Pakistani defences east of the Icchogil Canal protecting the city. The capture of Lahore is essential to the rationale of Operation Badla, however, because having committed to the attack, India can’t withdraw at this point without handing Pakistan a propaganda victory. Nor will the frenzied crowds now dancing in the streets of Indian cities, who imagine that this will be a final war against Pakistan, be satisfied with anything less than a demonstrable victory.

At the same time, Pakistani defences are becoming increasingly effective, taking a steadily rising toll of Indian armour. Helicopter gunships race at head height over the battlefield, rocketing tanks, while heavy artillery barrages are tying down the infantry. Without reinforcement, the Indian strike corps will find it more and more difficult to reach their targets. The whole attack plan is in jeopardy.

The Pakistani High Command has accurately identified the Lahore attack as the real danger, and deployed its forces accordingly. The well-dug-in Pakistan Army regulars, supported by heavy artillery firing from positions east of Walton Cantonment, will prove extremely difficult to dislodge. Any Indian units which do manage to break through will find themselves threatened with encirclement by attacks from the flanks.

In an emergency meeting in Delhi, punctuated by the noise of firecrackers from celebrating crowds in the streets, the military chiefs and Modi decide that the original ultra-short duration war timetable will have to be extended, but only by a maximum of forty-eight hours. Urgent reinforcements will have to be sent to the Lahore front, with the strategy shifting from a rapid sword thrust to a battle of attrition meant to wear down the Pakistani forces. Meanwhile, the 1st Armoured Division, spearheading the thrust at Multan, is ordered to move forward at top speed, in order to force the Pakistanis to divert troops from the defence of Lahore.

The International Response:

At half past eleven in the evening of the 29th, Indian time, the UN Security Council meets in New York to discuss an urgent Pakistani plea calling for an immediate halt to the Indian invasion. China, which has had good relations with Modi as well as its old friend Islamabad, moves a resolution demanding India withdraw all forces and threatening military action. Although Russia expresses its “deep disappointment” with the Indian government, it vetoes the resolution, marking the first overt difference in opinion between the two allies in the UN on any substantive issue since 2012. France, which has major weapons sales contracts to both nations, also votes against it. Britain abstains, as does the United States. Nobody is sure of Indian intentions, and the meeting merely closes with a statement calling on both sides to exercise maximum restraint.

The Indian government is ecstatic, and declares a diplomatic victory. On the other hand, the Pakistani army, which has complete control over the military direction of the war, decides that there will be no help from abroad, at least in time to make a difference. It is on its own.

The Battle of Mirgarh:

Red arrow shows the site of the battle.

The Indian First Armoured Division has been moving north-west since crossing the frontier, but has been delayed by severe dust storms during the day. With darkness, though, the wind has died down, and the division finally begins rolling across the desert, against only sporadic and largely ineffective resistance. The biggest problem faced by the division are with the Arjun tanks, which are too heavy to keep up in the soft sandy terrain, and with the older T-72s, which are still breaking down in considerable numbers. During the night, therefore, the division becomes strung out, but by mid-morning of the 30th January the first squadrons of T-90 tanks are approaching the town of Mirgarh.


Indian T-90s advancing towards Mirgarh

 Just after eleven in the morning, the lead Pakistani armoured units, armed with T-80 UD and Al Khalid tanks, counterattack from the south and north-east, trying to catch the Indians in a pincer. At the same time, PAF J-10 and F-16 aircraft race over the strung-out lines of Indian armour, hitting them with cluster bombs and armour-piercing missiles. Indian SU 30s and Mirage 2000s flying over the battlefield counterattack, and a confused dogfight develops, during the course of which an Indian Rafale flight attempting to strike the Pakistanis mistakenly bombs an Indian tank squadron instead. The two sides break off combat temporarily in the late afternoon, with Pakistani forces disengaging to the north-east while the Indians fall back a short distance to consolidate before renewing the advance. About forty tanks have been lost on both sides, along with between ten and fifteen aircraft.

The Indians resume their advance after dark, with a change of direction to the north. Unknown to them, the Pakistanis are returning along the same route, and the two sides meet head-on at about nine in the evening. In the darkness of the desert night, lit only by occasional flares, the two armoured forces begin a grinding battle of attrition. Units soon lose cohesion and become inextricably tangled, with tanks fighting at point-blank range and occasionally ramming each other like Soviet T-34s and German PzKw IVs on the Eastern Front in World War II. Both sides are completely unable to use either artillery or air support because of the darkness and the confusion.

When morning arrives, the battle is still in progress, but neither side is able to use its air power or artillery, because the entire battlefield is by now covered by a gigantic dust cloud from the tank treads. However, the superior numbers, training, and equipment of the Indian forces have finally begun to tell. Also, some of the Arjuns have just arrived, and by good fortune outflank and destroy a Pakistani reinforcement column driving up from the south-west. Throughout the day, the Indians manage to isolate and wipe out pockets of Pakistani armour, and succeed in blocking all attempts by the desperate enemy tankmen to either concentrate together or reinforce. When darkness falls on the 31st evening, the remaining Pakistani forces disengage and withdraw as best they can. They have managed to delay the Indian advance, but have lost almost two hundred tanks and armoured personnel carriers, and are hors de combat for the moment.

The Battle of Mirgarh is over, and has resulted in a decisive Indian victory. The way to the Sutlej River, beyond which lies Multan, is open.

The sinking of the Viraat:

The Indian Navy has sat out most of India’s conflicts with Pakistan, having participated only in a limited way in the 1971 war, when Seahawk jets from the carrier Vikrant bombed Chittagong and missile boats launched a seaborne assault on Karachi. In the context of a cold start war, the navy has no real role to play; but the government is determined to show that it is using all available means to fight Pakistan. So the navy’s ancient light aircraft carrier, the INS Viraat – which, as the HMS Hermes, had fought in the Falklands War in 1982 – slowly steams northwards across the Arabian Sea, and on the early evening of the 30th launches an air strike by eight Sea Harriers against Karachi harbour. The raid is a disaster; six of the eight Harriers are shot down, in return for limited damage to two corvettes and a couple of shore installations.

Viraat launching Harrier against Karachi. This is the last known photo taken of the carrier.

The Viraat has no chance to launch a second raid with its few remaining Harriers. The Pakistani Navy’s Agosta 90B class submarine PNS Hamza left Karachi on a routine training mission on 26th January; with the outbreak of war, it was ordered to patrol the approaches to the port to prevent a 1971-like Indian bombardment. Shortly before midnight, at the very moment that Indian and Pakistani tanks are crashing into each other in the desert sands south of Mirgarh, the Hamza’s passive sonar detects the noise of the engines of the Viraat and its escort of two frigates and a destroyer. The submarine shadows the ships for an hour, working up to attack position. At approximately ten minutes past one in the morning, it fires three SM 39 Exocet anti-ship missiles.  All three strike the carrier at the waterline. Given its slow speed and inability to manoeuvre, they could scarcely have missed.

The Viraat is mortally wounded. On fire and taking on water, the ancient carrier slows to a stop. At four in the morning, the captain issues orders to abandon ship. Blazing fiercely and listing badly, the old vessel hangs on for several hours more.  At just before eight in the morning, almost seven hours after being hit, it turns turtle and sinks, taking over two hundred of the crew with it down to the bottom of the Arabian Sea.

The Hamza has gone deep and stayed silent after firing the missiles. After evading several sticks of Indian depth charges, it heads north-west towards the Pakistan coast. Its part in the war is over.

The Hamza setting out on its patrol

 In Delhi, the news of the Viraat’s sinking is delivered to the Prime Minister by the Navy Chief in person. Modi immediately orders that it be kept completely secret until the conclusion of the war, in order to maintain public morale. In real terms, the destruction of the doddering old carrier is of no importance anyway. The immediate effect of the sinking, however, is to remove the Indian Navy from further involvement in the hostilities. The war will henceforth be fought by the two other services.


 The Hatf Option:

The Pakistani top brass, keenly aware of its relative military inferiority, has prepared several options to counter an Indian offensive. One option is to launch fidayeen strikes in Kashmir, using small teams of suicide attackers to infiltrate and attack army bases in order to tie troops down. However, since India hasn’t struck across the frontier in Kashmir, such strikes will be of no value. Another option is to fall back, abandon most territory east of the Indus river, and counterattack when Indian lines are overstretched. But this will be possible only in case of a longer war, with India planning to clear and hold territory; it’s useless in the case of a short-duration thrust meant to defeat and humiliate Pakistan and withdraw.

Nor can Pakistan take the risk of trying to absorb a defeat; it knows that this will disastrously weaken the state, and render it unable to resist the various rebellions, from the Balochis to the west to the Pashtuns in the north. If the army loses the battle, the country will collapse and disintegrate. Defeat, therefore, is not an option Pakistan can afford.

It then falls back to its third option – the Bomb.

As part of its arsenal meant to halt an Indian invasion, Pakistan has several mobile batteries of Hatf IX (Nasr) tactical nuclear missiles, with a sixty-kilometre range. These sub-kiloton missiles are battlefield nukes, meant to knock out armoured thrusts; Pakistani strategists think the risk involved in their use within Pakistan’s own territory is acceptable given the alternative.

Two of these batteries – each of four missiles – are ready at Multan Cantonment. By the afternoon of the 31st, by which time it’s clear that the battle of Mirgarh is lost, the two batteries are ordered to move to the south-east. In the early hours of the 1st February, the transporter-erector-launchers and their support vehicles are lying in wait for the Indian armour.

At around the same time, near Lahore, the Indian spearheads finally fight their way to the Icchogil Canal. Engineer outfits quickly span the waterway with bridges, but the offensive across the canal will have to wait until Pakistani forces still hanging on to the east of it are neutralised. The Pakistani army still has defensive positions determinedly holding on to the western bank, but once the Indian armoured brigades break loose from their bridgeheads, the fall of the city will be only a matter of time.

In a bunker somewhere near Rawalpindi, the exact position of which is known to the Pakistani army general staff alone, there is a meeting in which the orders are issued: the fall of Lahore can’t be delayed longer than two days at the most. The final battle is at hand.

The Hatf batteries will launch the first counter-blow. The Pakistani High Command hopes the Indians will get the message that Pakistan is willing to nuke its own territory if required, and withdraw, so that it will also be the last. In case India doesn't, though, the Pakistanis prepare other options.

At about one in the morning of 1st February, the newly-reinforced Indian armour resumes its thrust northwards towards the Sutlej, the tanks rolling past wrecked and abandoned Pakistani vehicles. The soldiers are well aware that they have broken the enemy’s forces for the moment, and serious resistance is unlikely before they reach the river. Also, after the past two days’ constant fighting, the soldiers are exhausted; despite their own efforts, their energies are flagging and it’s impossible to maintain the same level of alertness as they had managed so far.

At exactly sixteen minutes after two in the morning, the first Hatf battery shoots off its four missiles, and drives away from its firing position as fast as possible to avoid retaliatory fire. Seconds later, the second battery follows suit.

Hatf battery launching missiles in training


The Indian soldiers, riding in their tanks and armoured personnel carriers with open hatches, savouring the cold night air, don’t have a chance. The warheads, being low-yield sub-kiloton devices, only produce brief flashes of searing light as they explode in the air over the lines of advancing Indian armour, not spectacular mushroom clouds; but they are more than enough. Most of the division is cremated in its tracks, the crew reduced to charred skeletons inside the white-hot hulls of their tanks.

The Indian response:

It has been a night of feverish activity in Delhi. The war is already in its fourth day, and it will have to be concluded, even according to the extended timetable, in three days more. While intense international pressure on the government is growing, it has so far successfully managed to withstand it. The fact that so far not a single Pakistani air raid or missile strike has taken place on Indian soil has also allowed the government to keep public opinion on its side. To be sure, the Pakistanis have been shelling Indian troops in Kashmir, especially in the Kargil sector, and have launched small-scale attacks on the Siachen glacier; but these are mere pinpricks, easily shrugged off. And though PAF planes have made short dashes across the border, they’ve invariably turned tail at the first sight of Indian aircraft.

To the people, therefore, India seems to be obviously winning; already, the TV channels are calling for Pakistan to be completely defeated and at least Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, if not Lahore as well, annexed.

Modi realises that he will have to play a delicate balancing act between what can be achieved and what the public now expects. At all costs, India can’t be seen to have lost the war – not only must Lahore be captured, but it must be made clear that India will withdraw at its own initiative, not in the face of a Pakistani counterattack. He is in the middle of a pre-dawn meeting with defence ministry officials and army generals on the plans for the next days when an urgent message arrives. The armoured thrust towards Multan has been destroyed by Pakistani nuclear missiles.

What exactly followed in the meeting isn’t known, since no records seem to be extant, and the participants are not available for questioning. But from Indian actions afterwards, and knowledge of Modi’s persona and the dilemma he’s faced with, one can make some inferences.

If India retreats in the face of the missile strikes, it will hand the Pakistanis a victory. Obviously, the advance on Multan can’t be resumed within the time left to India; and Lahore is still at least a day away from falling, after which it will take more time to wipe out remaining pockets of resistance. Besides, Indian military doctrine – repeated publicly and often – has been to nuke Pakistani population centres in response even to tactical nuclear use. India can’t back out of that without the government losing an unacceptable amount of face. Also, Modi’s own vengeful psychology won’t allow for withdrawal without first exacting retribution. There is, therefore, no way out for him but to order nuclear strikes against Pakistan.

It’s known that the director of the Indian spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, was ordered to join the meeting after the news of the Pakistani nuclear bombs. He will have been asked about the likelihood of Pakistan’s retaliating to an Indian nuclear strike with one of its own. RAW, though, is an agency of historically staggering incompetence, an agency which has repeatedly bent over backwards to please the political leadership while at the same time pursuing mindless initiatives of its own – as when it, most recently, began arming the Pakistani Taliban. The RAW Director will have said what everyone wants to hear – that the Pakistanis will not dare to strike back against an Indian nuclear attack.

The top military officials, whatever their personal feelings, will not have demurred either. Like all Indian generals, they owe their position to political reliability more than anything else, and are also conditioned to unquestioning obedience of the political leadership. The RAW statement will also have let them off the hook, since if things go wrong, it will be the spy agency’s fault, not theirs.  

There’s one definite fact to go on – satellite images, taken the previous afternoon, don’t show Pakistani medium and long-range missiles readied for immediate firing. If the enemy does decide on a counter-strike, there should be enough time to detect it and prepare. Delhi is surrounded by batteries of anti-ballistic missiles anyway.

It only remains to choose the timing of the strike, and the target. It’s crucial to hit back as quickly as possible, before international pressure to desist grows so overwhelming that a nuclear strike becomes impossible. As for the target, it’s not realistic to mount an attack on a purely military objective, since the Pakistani forces are concentrated in a mass only before Lahore, too close to the Indians to hit at. Therefore, India will have to nuke a Pakistani city. There are three candidates – Karachi, Multan and Rawalpindi.

The reason Multan is chosen as a target is interesting. Rawalpindi, though the seat of the Pakistani army’s top leadership, is too close to Lahore; fallout from the nuclear explosion might well endanger Indian troops. Besides, the destruction of the city – along with the enemy’s top brass – might disrupt the command system, with officers further down the chain of command hitting back on their own initiative. Karachi is ruled out because, as Pakistan’s largest and most important city, its destruction is almost certain to make it difficult to impossible for the enemy to resist hitting back. Besides, Karachi is far away from the battle front and there’s no way India can justify nuking it to the international community in military terms. That leaves Multan.

Situated in the rough geographical centre of Pakistan, Multan sits astride major communication routes between the north and south of the country, so its destruction will cut Pakistan in two. It’s also home to a large cantonment, a legitimate military target. And, most importantly to Modi, the Pakistanis have used nuclear weapons against Indian forces advancing on Multan, so destroying it will constitute revenge.

Once the strike goes through, and Multan is confirmed destroyed, Modi will go on TV to announce that the Pakistanis have used the Bomb on Indian forces, and justify the destruction of the city; he will also warn Pakistan of total annihilation if they use nuclear weapons again. He orders a speech to be prepared accordingly.

An Indian Prithvi missile carrying a 20-kiloton nuclear warhead – about a third more destructive than the bomb used on Hiroshima – roars into the sky, heading west across the desert.

Prithvi being launched. It isn't known if this photo depicts the strike on Multan.

 Dawn is touching the eastern sky. In a few minutes, a second dawn will briefly light up the west.

Multan dies a few minutes after seven, Indian time. The fireball is visible to Indian troops south of Mirgarh, including the tankers who have survived the tactical nuking and are retreating back towards the border. It’s not recorded what they felt.

The Bogey:

Modi is due to address the people of India at nine in the morning. By half past eight, the television crews are ready and waiting, and speculation is mounting. Rumours are rife; the commonest is that he will announce the fall of Lahore. Others speculate that the Chinese have attacked India’s northern borders to take the heat off their Pakistani allies. Either way, they all say, whatever Modi will announce will be of extreme importance.

That announcement never takes place.

At seven minutes past the half-hour, Indian radar controllers detect a single Pakistani aircraft approaching fast from the west, at a very low altitude, virtually treetop height. It’s already well within Indian territory when first seen, and is obviously protected by sophisticated electronic jammers. The radar immediately alerts Indian Air Force interceptors of the “bogey’s” course and heading, and MiG-29 pilots at Hindon airbase are ordered to scramble. Just two minutes after the alert, they’re in the air.

Well before they reach the “bogey”, though, the Pakistani pilot is already trying to get away. Rising in a steep turning climb, he banks sharply and is headed back home at nearly twice the speed of sound. The Indian pilots relax slightly, though they keep in pursuit. It’s just another of the PAF’s attempts to keep the Indian fighters off balance by making brief intrusions. Nothing to worry about, really.

They couldn’t be more wrong.

The Pakistani aircraft is an F-16D Block 52+ of No 5 Falcons Squadron, flown by Wing Commander Tauseef Ahmed, one of the PAF’s top pilots. In order to evade detection, Ahmed took off not from his squadron's airbase at Shahbaz, near Jacobabad, but from a highway  west of Lahore, where he's been waiting since the start of the war. He’s trained and prepared for years for this one mission, and has already completed it successfully long before two Indian air-to-air missiles explode near his tail and send him spiralling down in flames near Amritsar in Indian Punjab. It was already too late to stop him by the time he’d completed his climbing turn.

Slung below the belly of Ahmed’s F-16 was a one-megaton thermonuclear bomb. He armed it just as he began his climb, and pressed the bomb release seconds before he started to bank away. Even as he was rushing back westwards, the bomb was climbing into the sky. As gravity began tugging at it, the weapon slowed, then slowed further, until it finally stalled and began to fall. Describing a perfect parabola, it began its descent over Delhi.

Tauseef Ahmed takes off on an earlier training flight


The Destruction of Delhi:

At exactly 0847, Tauseef Ahmed’s bomb reaches its pre-set altitude and explodes low over Connaught Place in Delhi.  A flash of actinic light precedes a fireball, which reaches temperatures approaching those at the centre of the sun. Expanding at terrific speed, the fireball strikes the ground, and instantly vaporises everything it touches – earth, concrete, metal, human flesh, all is incinerated in an instant.

The fireball rushes across the city, consuming everything in its path, in a rapidly expanding circle around Delhi’s commercial district. Hotels, roadside stalls, elegant politicians’ residences, the pink sandstone edifice of the Presidential Palace, all turn in a fraction of a second to incandescent dust. A little further off, some of the thicker walls survive, with people leaving shadows of themselves on them as they evaporate. The fireball is preceded by a shock wave, a wall of air moving at the speed of a supersonic jet, which knocks down buildings, people, trees and vehicles with equal impartiality, and sends smashed concrete and glass whistling through the air at lethal velocities, shattering bones and slicing through arteries.

As the fireball slows, the air above it, heated to solar temperatures, rises, taking along with it the ashes of everything vaporised by the flash. A column of superheated air ascends into the upper atmosphere, till it finally begins to cool. As it does, the water vapour in it condenses, mixing with the dust and ash, and spreads out in the cooler upper air, forming a cloud. The rising column of air below, now stained with smoke and soot, as well as vapour, is a tether connecting it to the ground. From a distance, it looks like a titanic mushroom.

Like a gigantic, evil monster, writhing in torment, the mushroom cloud rears its head over the destroyed city.

The mushroom cloud, as pictured from a plane flying far away to the east.


As the fireball dies out, the winds begin. Rushing back to fill the space cleared by the column of superheated air and the shock wave, the winds fan the thousands of fires now breaking out all over the shattered city, and combine them together into a swirling wall of flame. Within twenty minutes of the bomb’s explosion – when Ahmed and his fighter already occupy a smoking crater in a wheat field near Amritsar – the fire has created its own weather system, sucking in air from all directions. A firestorm roars across the city, consuming everything in its path. By the time it burns itself out, nothing will remain but a field of ashes and ruins.

Later in the day, as the fires finally begin to burn themselves out, the irradiated dust from the first explosion begins to descend, in a plume over north-west India. Those it touches will know of their misfortune only much later, as their hair begins to fall out and their guts cramp in agonising spasms. By then, it will be much too late.

Delhi is dead, along with most of the Indian government and the top command of the armed forces; but the horror is just beginning.

Armageddon:

Now that the war is over, and the governments on both sides which caused it are history, it is probably of little benefit to go into the details of the nuclear exchange which followed over the next two days, with detailed description of each strike and counter-strike. Suffice it to say that both governments and high commands ceased to exist early on the 1st February, and after that it was left to lower-level officers to carry out attacks at their own initiative. The destruction of Multan and Delhi was followed by nuclear bombs over Karachi, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Quetta, Hyderabad and Gwadar in Pakistan; and Ahmedabad, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Surat, Agra and Kanpur in India. Mumbai was destroyed too, though not directly – a long range nuclear missile struck the Trombay atomic reactor, sending a cloud of lethal radiation over the city. It was the last nuclear attack of the war.

All the Indian strikes on Pakistan are carried out by ballistic missiles. Pakistan uses a mix of toss-bombing raids similar to Ahmed's attack on Delhi, followed by missile strikes as they run out of pilots trained in the technique. Not a single attack on either side is intercepted in time by the respective defences, as far as is known. 

The skies over both nations are soon black with drifting smoke and dust, and lethal radiation falls over the plains like malevolent, invisible, snow. The loss of medical facilities, concentrated within cities in both nations, dooms the people of the countryside to death by radiation poisoning and cancer; what international aid there is arrives far too late to help anyone.

The legacy of Armageddon:

One of the most destructive features of the nuclear exchange was that the weapons were almost all set as groundbursts, with the fireballs from the explosions touching the ground. This limited the immediate area of damage, but lifted enormous amounts of irradiated dust into the air, which later came down in lethal fallout. To this day, the survivors of the carnage in what remains of Northern India and Pakistan have extremely high levels of cancer, and they have almost stopped reproducing owing to the enormous levels of mutations among the children.

By the time Trombay was destroyed, late in the morning of 3rd February, the war was already over in all but name. Lahore had fallen on the afternoon of the 2nd, but nobody cared about it by then. The soldiers were no longer shooting at each other – both sides were trying desperately to find shelter from each other’s missiles.

How many people were killed in the nuclear exchange is impossible to compute – guesses range from eighteen to twenty million Indians and eleven to sixteen million Pakistanis by various estimates. The actual total will never be known, because the death toll keeps rising to this day. To the deaths from the bombs themselves and the radiation must be added the millions of casualties from the famines which still sweep across northern India and all of Pakistan, where agriculture has all but ceased; and since medical facilities in South Asia are all concentrated in the cities, millions more must have died, and are still dying, of otherwise treatable diseases, including of the epidemics that afflict both nations owing to the total breakdown of sanitation.

Nor is the dying confined to Indians and Pakistanis. Borne on high altitude winds, the fallout covers South Asia, from eastern Iran, southern Afghanistan, all of Nepal, till it touches western Bhutan and the fringes of Bangladesh. Some of it crosses the Himalayas and taints the high plains of western Tibet. Some of the dust and smoke particles are still in the atmosphere now, and will be for many years to come.

The war wasn’t ended by surrender on either side, or by international intervention. In fact, international intervention wouldn’t have done any good, because by evening on 1st February there wasn’t any government on either side to intervene with. The war burned itself out when neither side was able to hit out at the other any longer.

So obvious it was that both sides had lost that there was no TV channel in India which even tried to claim victory.

Aftermath:

Pakistan virtually ceased to exist. That it didn’t completely disintegrate can be credited to one man. Arsalan Ghumman, whom Nawaz Sharif had imprisoned early in January, was released from custody at the end of the war, and took over the reins of what was left of the country. Over the next months, he travelled over all of Pakistan, supervising relief efforts, setting up local administrations, and co-ordinating the distribution of international aid. He diverted the rump Pakistani army from the Indian front to rescue and relief efforts, with combat operations restricted to putting down jihadist outbreaks in the north and west. Even with all his efforts, he was left with a ruined, devastated nation, which has to this day not begin to recover from the war and probably never shall.      

India, despite its much larger size, did little better. Most of its industrial base had been wiped out with the destruction of Mumbai and Ahmedabad, Kanpur and Ludhiana; and with the end of the central government, the country rapidly began to unravel. State after state in the north-east of the country declared independence, and had to be forcibly pacified by military units stationed there, which massacred tens of thousands. Kashmir - over which India and Pakistan had shed so much blood - was blanketed by radiation raining down from both sides. Neither India nor Pakistan was any longer either able to or interested in claiming it, so the people were left to their fate.

As law and order collapsed, the nation began to disintegrate into a conglomeration of city-states and mini-fiefdoms, each jealously hanging on to its resources. Finally, a right-wing military dictatorship led by a junta of colonels took over, with the southern Indian city of Hyderabad (not to be confused with the destroyed Pakistani city of the same name) as its seat of government. It still remains in power, though there isn’t much to rule over any more; its authority runs only in the large cities, and that only during the day. The night belongs to the criminal gangs.

Delhi, though it remains India's notional capital, has not, as of this writing, been re-occupied. It remains a sea of ashes and charred ruins. Mumbai is slowly picking itself up, though it's still a shadow of what it once was. There's nothing left of the other destroyed cities.

The silence of the “international community” was deafening. Once the nuclear exchange had started, it made not the slightest effort to do anything but watch in horrified fascination as the two countries destroyed each other. Only much later was a trickle of aid organised, and then it made little difference because, with communications in the nuked areas utterly destroyed, little of it ever reached the intended recipients anyway.

To this day nobody knows just who set off the car bombs which started off the whole thing in the first place. There never was a proper investigation, not that it really matters any longer.


Operation Revenge is over.




(Note to reader: This account of the India-Pakistan War of 2019 is not meant to be a prophecy. Call it, instead, a warning - and a cry for peace, while we still can achieve it.)

Copyright B Purkayastha 2013


108 comments:

  1. The economy of the United States is based, in its entirety, on cheap energy. That resource is gone, replaced by more and more expensive sources which will continue to rise in price due to international demand. The end-result, in the minds of several American economists who are well-place to know the truth, is a collapse of the nation's economic structure sometime between now and 2020.

    This scenario would effectively remove the U.S. as a 'player' in international politics; the same forces would also effectively remove China. As the U.S. returns to reliance on regional economies-of-scale, what happens at the other end of the world might as well happen on the moon. The world will, for better or ill, be left to sort out its own issues.

    I've followed the decades-old conflict between India and Pakistan off-and-on over the years, and have wondered, frankly, why something like what you've described hasn't already happened. The only conclusion I can reach is that the U.S. would likely step in with both feet, and quickly. Removing that restraint - again, for good or ill - would be far from the only thing preventing your scenario, but would be a major factor.

    I'm not fond of our actions as an Empire. If there's any value to it at all, however, it's in keeping a lid on things like what you describe.

    When we leave Afghanistan, things will go back to what they were - as you described, one might as well draw a line across the center of the country, giving one half to the Taliban and other half to a loose agglomeration of warlords more-or-less affiliated with Russia.

    We live in interesting times....

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great work!
    Btw, I did glance through another book written by a western author who predicted the exact same scenario that you have about pakistan using nukes within their own territory, did not finish the book though.
    There is a hyderabad in pakistan too?Never heard of it.
    Also, the Times of India did an article today on the official deployment of Vikrant yesterday from Cochin. Apparently its ready and deployed.

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  3. brilliant, perfect, gripping

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  4. . . damn-it Bill, I open up my email hoping to get on with stuff and there are your string of stories so what else could I do? Wonderful story telling from a master - salutations and thank you!

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  5. The sadest part of this story is, it could actually happen.

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  6. Frightening detailed and a gripping account of what could really happen. In-fact, I hate to say this, but most of what is written here will come to pass, hopefully, without that nuclear Armageddon.

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  7. its pretty stupid ........the weapons platforms to be used in the 2019 window will be very different ......this is a description of what an indo pak war might have looked like in the late 90's or early 2000's . Back to the drawing board kid !

    Source : Me- Ex Military!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your input, Mr Anonymous ex-Military. Riiiiiight...between now and 2019, a whole and hitherto unknown generation of weapons will magically appear in both sides' arsenals. Thank you sooooo much :D

      Delete
  8. Are you Sir an idiot who just keeps daydreaming about unrealistic future scenarios which will never occur.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Mr Anonymous. I am such an idiot. You are SO right.

      Delete
  9. peace be with you

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  10. This, my dear friend, is bullshit!

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    Replies
    1. Perfectly wrong, my dear friend. It's cowdung!

      Delete
    2. You're staging a war based on 80s in 2020s...

      Delete
  11. Bill, You are a JNU educated Marxist-Pacifist who has come up with this unrealistic scenario.

    You just do not have a grasp of the total picture. India will trump Pakistan and occupy it.

    That is how the war will end.

    All the other things stated by you are purely fiction and oriented towards Marxist-Pacifist thinking which has destroyed India's image in the world as a soft state.

    So whatever you wrote is utter nonsense.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SO much for recruiting me to JNU. Naturally, you have an alternate scenario which makes sense? I would love to see it.

      Delete
  12. what happened to india's anti-ballistic missile sheild , india's no first use nuclear policy, sukhoi PAK FA , TEJAS, BRAHMOS mark II, nirbhay, AWACS ? role of Israel in the war ? not mentioned in this article ?
    author is so ignorant and so fond of modi that he had given defence portfolio too to him, when pak did kargil in 1999 india defeated pakistan without crossing the border, it is the same BJP government which is being mentioned in the article .
    Is there any possiblity that india will target pakistan's satellite to destroy their communication and maneuvering of their nuclear missiles, needed to be addressed .


    ReplyDelete
  13. what happened to india's anti-ballistic missile sheild , india's no first use nuclear policy, sukhoi PAK FA , TEJAS, BRAHMOS mark II, nirbhay, AWACS ? role of Israel in the war ? not mentioned in this article ?
    author is so ignorant and so fond of modi that he had given defence portfolio too to him, when pak did kargil in 1999 india defeated pakistan without crossing the border, it is the same BJP government which is being mentioned in the article .
    Is there any possiblity that india will target pakistan's satellite to destroy their communication and maneuvering of their nuclear missiles, needed to be addressed .


    ReplyDelete
  14. what happened to india's anti-ballistic missile sheild , india's no first use nuclear policy, sukhoi PAK FA , TEJAS, BRAHMOS mark II, nirbhay, AWACS ? role of Israel in the war ? not mentioned in this article ?
    author is so ignorant and so fond of modi that he had given defence portfolio too to him, when pak did kargil in 1999 india defeated pakistan without crossing the border, it is the same BJP government which is being mentioned in the article .
    Is there any possiblity that india will target pakistan's satellite to destroy their communication and maneuvering of their nuclear missiles, needed to be addressed .


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What happened to the missile shield? It didn't work. ABM shields don't work. They're a Maginot line defence which can be easily circumvented.

      The PAK FA is still in development. I'll bet you anything you want that neither it nor the LCA will be in service in 2019.

      The Zionist entity will have no role in the war because India isn't going to broadcast its intentions in advance.

      Kargil? What makes you think it was a war? And what makes you think India won it?

      Yeah, I love Modi :D Thanks for that :D Modi is the reason a war may actually happen.

      Delete
    2. wake up mate, not every war is nuclear war @kargil war.

      problem is that you assume things rather than facts
      PAK FA is already is in advance stage of trials and it usually take 2-3 years for a fighter to start production where FGFA is there now.
      tejas mark 1 in 2019 ?, you are going to lose all your money.

      Ballitic missile shield phase 1 having protection from 2000kms incoming is already deploid in major cities and important defense institution. it is matter of fact that in 5-6 years is will only become better .
      pakistan having thermonuclear device . wow !

      I am not talking about Israeli entry rather boost in indo-Israeli partnership in BJP/Modi era which have been sidelined in pat 9 years.

      Modi is a very clever person, cant you smell he is trying to chang anti-minority politics now for 2014 election. I dont think he will wage a war against pakistan , but if there will be indo-pak war under him then it will be victory india.

      Delete
    3. Correction - there will be no all out war planned. Why will there be no all out war planned? There will be no all out war planned because all of India's industrial base is within easy striking range of the Pakistani border. That's why the Army has a Cold Start doctrine - to hit hard and get out before Pakistan can retaliate. Of course, that assumes that Pakistan will react according to India's calculations. As Helmut von Moltke the Elder said, "In war, no plan survices contact with the enemy."

      Of course, you're welcome to write your own India-Pakistan war scenario, I would actually be deeply interested in reading it. Seriously.

      Actually, there are other factors - including the drying up of the Himalayan origin rivers owing to glacier melt and desertification from climatic change - which may make war in the long term more likely, but I selected a short-term scenario for the simple reason that it's at least partly explicable. We really don't know the variables in say forty years. Forty years ago, nobody could've predicted the collapse of the USSR, the abrupt rise and equally precipitous fall of the American Empire, and the recolonisation of Africa along with the rampant spread of Islamic fundamentalism from Afghanistan to Mali.

      Delete
  15. This is possible, but India and Pakistan are also pretty smart. In an event of such an attack, both sides will have a heated exchange of words....but that is about it. There are both aware of the MAD scenario.

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  16. Are you a relative/friend of Arsalan Ghumman. Because it seem's you wrote all this, just to make Arsalan incharge of Pakistan.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've known Arsalan for several years. Not a relative, but, yes, he's a friend.

      Delete
    2. Mohammed Salman Dalia01/10/2014 16:48

      Arsalan was my class felow during my studies in ACCA and he is still my friend, why did you mentioned HIS name, please confirm is this is a fiction story, possible future war scenerio, prediction or what, I discussed this with Arsalan, he said this is just a fiction sotry

      Delete
    3. " please confirm is this is a fiction story, possible future war scenerio, prediction or what, "

      It;s totally a prediction made from a crystal ball and not fiction at all.

      Delete
  17. hm. I appreciate the effort. Story is good and strong and if we can make it short than I think Lashari should attempt it :D

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  18. I'm getting a LOT of fun out of reading the comments over here. Keep giving me loads of free publicity, people! I love it.

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  19. You are the stupidest military "strategist" I have ever seen in my whole life. How can one single fighter jet cross paki border and come all the way to delhi ?
    Do you think nuke exchanges take place by 1-on-1 basis ? India's nuke doctrine clearly states that retaliatory nuke strikes will be many times the actual enemy nuke strike. All paki military targets will be the primary targets of indian missiles and bombers. Relief efforts carried out by a single person will NOT be enough to save the pakis and he will definitely be shot by taliban extremist groups.
    Do yourself a favor. Stop spreading garbage in the net, you pro-paki bastard.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, I loooove this. Especially coming from someone (or thing) too cowardly to state his/its name on the response column. Hahahahaha.

      I am really enjoying the low life vermin this post has brought crawling out of the woodwork. You lot are the best argument for a nuclear war I've ever come across :D

      Delete
  20. Arguable one of the most inaccurate articles I have ever read in my whole life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wild guess: I assume you don't read much fiction.

      Delete
  21. OH... shit..
    It's a story... I thought that it was serious speculation.. Didn't notice the word 'tale' at the start.
    Damn..
    A good read.. But I still think that it can't become reality in any of our lifetimes.. But if it does then it sure sounds scary..
    But I'm really sceptical about an aircraft managing to fly all the way to New Delhi through hundreds of miles of foreign territory carrying a huge nuclear warhead.. I mean, this isn't world war 2 or some dipshit country with the worst airforce we are talking about.. India does pack some serious air-power from whatever I have read..
    The Indian navy from what I read appears to be well equipped and has far better statistics and combat wins than other countries in the theatre.
    But again.. a good story.

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  22. Do u ever Imagined...what India can do in the time of war...ask america they have much better idea about Indian genius...technology

    ReplyDelete
  23. I believe Indian Govt will lack the willpower to nuke Pakistan, who, on the other hand , out of derperation will use nukes heavily. Result? a destroyed India.... aftermath being a divided India. Parts of India shall be covered by Pakistan, china and Bangladesh. In south India, there shall be 3-4 small independent nations. So shall be NE India. Sad... but history repeats itself...

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  24. i think pakistan has an advantage that it holdes the chorbat la heights and point 5353 in the drass sector.because they can be used to destroy the national highway 1A which connects india with ladakh and siachen as both of these points are very close to this road and a single artillery fire would be enough to cut off indian suplies to siachen.indians will use boeings like C-130 to deliver supplies but air supply is 15 times more costly then land so this move would cause a large damage to india and this might help to restrict the battle mainly to the northern areas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you forgot that you held ridges and peaks overlooking NH1 in kargil conflict of 1999. and we all pretty well know how you managed an advantage.

      Delete
    2. huh,get your facts right first,point 5353 was captured during the kargil war,and it is near to 1A and can be used to target it and cut indian suplies,during kargil pakistan didn,t choose to blow up 1A,they had other purposes

      Delete
  25. Time to Congrats Mr. Butcher!
    Your prolonged Research shaken the Paki Terror exporters! Their carrier is threatened by your skilled Imagination. So they decided to kidnap you from India and make you the supreme National Terror Adviser and national security analyst.
    Pak now have hign hopes that you will help to take them out of the "Top-10 Failed countries" in world.
    Your luck is now took-off... Cheers!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pakistan a failed state what a hoot! seriously you should get your facts straight, stop living in a world of fantasy far from reality. Pakistan's economy is still growing at 4.7 percent this year alone. Pakistan has a fraction of the economic output of India but at the same time we have fewer mouths to feed and whereas India has a much larger economic output than Pakistan in proportion it has many more mouths to feed as well! It's in the best interest of the people from both nations to refrain from mindless bashing of each others capacities and capabilities and start focusing on real problems. Both countries have amassed enough nuclear weapons to destroy themselves twice over. It's the responsibility of the youth like us to work towards crafting a relationship that is resilient to past animosities. Mistakes were made on both sides and we need to heed from those mistakes. If we are still found bickering over the same old ideologies of hate, then we will never be able to truly progress. Instead of criticising the merits of the article written by the author, we should all focus on the core message, that the annihilation of both countries is inevitable unless we move towards a sincere rapprochement! Currently the spy agencies of both countries are still focused on destroying the countries from within which is not in the best interest of either of the two nations. We have our own problems here in Pakistan far greater than to waste time debating over which country is more capable of kicking the others ASS and the same is true for your country. Lets start debating over areas mutual economic cooperation and fostering true peace between the two nations. I have heard media houses and their phoney rating based hate mongering programs on both sides, that only help to instil strong feelings of hatred in the youth. If one talks of ever lasting peace he is labelled and portrayed as a gutless/spineless pacifist by the media. So kudos to the author for breaking the norm and writing an article that is eye opening. I urge readers from Pakistan as well as India to stop wasting time on internet forums debating the Military capabilities and start discussing why we have not been able to provide ample clean drinking water/food/healthcare/education to all of the citizens of our countries! The problems in both the countries are the same, the parity of the magnitude of these problems for both countries is the same if we factor in the economies output and the populations of both the countries. As i said in the beginning, Pakistan has smaller economy and a smaller population to take care of, whereas India has a much larger economy almost approximately 5 folds and so is the population of India 5 folds larger than Pakistan (These are approximations, before anyone decides to debate over these figures!) According to wikipedia the figures are;

      Pakistan:
      Area
      - Total 796,095 km2[a] (36th)
      307,374 sq mi
      - Water (%) 3.1
      Population
      - 2014 estimate 186,693,907[8] (6th)
      - Density 234.4/km2 (55th)
      607.4/sq mi
      GDP (PPP) 2013 estimate
      - Total $574.068 billion[9] (26th)
      - Per capita $3,144[9] (139th)
      GDP (nominal) 2013 estimate
      - Total $236.518 billion[9] (45th)
      - Per capita $1,295[9] (147th)
      Gini (2008) 30.0[10]
      medium

      India:
      Area
      - Total 3,287,590[7] km2[b] (7th)
      1,269,346 sq mi
      - Water (%) 9.6
      Population
      - 2011 census 1,210,193,444[8] (2nd)
      - Density 378.3/km2 (31st)
      979.7/sq mi
      GDP (PPP) 2014 estimate
      - Total $5.425 trillion[9] (3rd)
      - Per capita $4,307[9] (133rd)
      GDP (nominal) 2014 estimate
      - Total $1.996 trillion[9] (10th)
      - Per capita $1,584[9] (143rd)
      Gini (2010) 33.9[10]
      medium

      So please let's focus on building stronger progressive states, rather than hungry populations with billions of dollars worth of military hardware sitting in storage and once in a year paraded in front of the starving nations!

      Delete
    2. Pakistan:
      Area
      - Total 796,095 km2[a] (36th)
      307,374 sq mi
      - Water (%) 3.1
      Population
      - 2014 estimate 186,693,907[8] (6th)
      - Density 234.4/km2 (55th)
      607.4/sq mi
      GDP (PPP) 2013 estimate
      - Total $574.068 billion[9] (26th)
      - Per capita $3,144[9] (139th)
      GDP (nominal) 2013 estimate
      - Total $236.518 billion[9] (45th)
      - Per capita $1,295[9] (147th)
      Gini (2008) 30.0[10]
      medium
      HDI (2012) Increase 0.515[11]
      low · 146th
      Currency Pakistani rupee (₨) (PKR)

      India:

      Area
      - Total 3,287,590[7] km2[b] (7th)
      1,269,346 sq mi
      - Water (%) 9.6
      Population
      - 2011 census 1,210,193,444[8] (2nd)
      - Density 378.3/km2 (31st)
      979.7/sq mi
      GDP (PPP) 2014 estimate
      - Total $5.425 trillion[9] (3rd)
      - Per capita $4,307[9] (133rd)
      GDP (nominal) 2014 estimate
      - Total $1.996 trillion[9] (10th)
      - Per capita $1,584[9] (143rd)
      Gini (2010) 33.9[10]
      medium · 79th

      India has a much larger economy but at the same time has more mouths to feed, whereas Pakistan has a smaller economy but at the same time have less people to take care of and above all the problems of both the countries are the same. We both have yet to provide clean drinking water/food/health care/ shelter/ education to whole of our populations. So lets avoid petty military debates that have no use at all.

      Both the countries have amassed billions of dollars worth of military hardware and weapons, that are only paraded once a year in front of the starving populations. Kudos to the author for writing an eye opening article. We have much greater issues to deal with, so let's all do a reality check on our own capacities and capabilities rather than mindlessly bashing each other over the internet. Let's move past the decades of useless animosity and focus towards rebuilding our countries!

      Delete
  26. What a waste of time.
    Very unlikely scenario. Even one nuke explosion in any country can cause severe impact on both countries. geographically both countries are just few miles away from each other. India is more interested in breaking or weakening Pakistan through controlling water, foreign investment, rising uprising among Pashtuns. bloches, and other ethnic groups. Already Pakistan is bleeding. I don't think India has any plans to invade Pakistan, it is not in her interest to destabilize Indian economy by going to war. Pakistan is already bleeding, why make effort. Never theless good attempt in writing a thriller "Delhi 2 Lahore"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it was always in BJP,s interest to invade Pakistan,that was why they exploded the nuclear bomb and started threatening Pakistan and it almost started a war after the parliament attack,and don,t underestimate Pakistan.you already did in 1998 by exploding your nukes first and then threatening to attack but when Pakistan did the same,your PM started trying to make peace.

      Delete
  27. This is another Die Hard flix going to be released in 2020.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Bill,what makes you think pakistani pashtuns(most of them) would support taliban,and india would still have a stake in afghanistan after 2014 drawdown.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I said Pakistani Pashtuns would want to re-integrate with Afghanistan, of which they were a part till the 1830s. I didn't say they would support the Taliban. In the scenario I posited here, the Pakistani and Indian states are both dysfunctional and in bad shape to provide bearable living standards to their people.

      There is absolutely no doubt that India will deepen its involvement in Afghanistan after the American withdrawal, assuming any such withdrawal takes place. It's not in India's interests to allow a even notionally pro-Pakistan Afghanistan. I doubt that India will send troops - that would just be another Afghan graveyard for interventionists - but both India and Iran would do everything short of that to shore up the Afghan government, whatever it is, against the Taliban. It is also certain that they won't succeed for long.

      Delete
    2. well bill,as far as i know,pashtuns(most of them) would not wan,t to re-integrate especially those of northern balochistan and the Tribal Areas,and most of the other won,t even do this,but your analysis was very good and i admire it.
      two things that puzzle me the most are who would the empire support,The Iran,Russia,India,Northern Alliance nexus or the Pakistan,Saudi Arabia,UAE,Taliban nexus and second that what role would china play in the afghan scenario and which nexus it is likely to support.

      Delete
    3. But India has Ballistic Missile Shield to Protect her Major cities because it is we Israelis have supplied India with this cutting edge Technology India can protect her from Pakistani nukes. But Pakistanis don't have any shields so they will be erased. Moreover India doesn't need to send an aircraft carrier to bomb Karachi because they have SLBM's (SUBMARINE LAUNCHED BALLISTIC MISSILES) named INS Arihant. Still Pakis still didn't have J-10 but they have the inferior JF-17. But IAF has SU-30 MKI, MIG-29 UPG,MIG-29K, Sea Harriers, etc

      Delete
    4. ABM systems simply...do...not...work. The much ballyhooed Zionist Iron Dome has an actual success rate of 5% against Qassams, which are pipes filled with explosives. The patriot missiles are now acknowledged not to have ever intercepted a single SCUD missile. And ABM systems are valueless against toss-bombing attacks or low level kamikaze attacks with air-dropped bombs.

      Delete
    5. Karan Agarwal08/10/2014 14:18

      About the patriot missile failure :-

      http://stanford.edu/~brianlam/work/wim_paper.pdf

      It has been identified and rectified nearly a quarter of a century ago...

      The defence systems DO work

      Delete
  29. An interesting scenario but has some basic flaws. By 2019 India is expected to be the fourth largest economy and military power. Pakistan is actually no longer important and its ability to disrupt Indian growth by disruptive bombings etc will only have very limited effect. Why should India retaliate militarily... it could do so in any number of ways including targeted attacks on terrorist targets. Such an action may even help the Pakistan Govt deal with its own internal problems of cohesion.
    It is also worth recalling that only the strong tend to have popular support to work towards peace, as Vajpayee did, so why look at Modi(if he comes to power) so negatively.
    Finally Kargil was a war that India won.....those are the facts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. aaha you dont understand,,.....---- the "Bill" is too sad to see Modi as PM maybe he wanted kejriwal (as his party once told kashmir should be handed back to pakistan) so that he can gain a little more publicity through "dharnas" alongside such crap and crunchy articles ....i doubt which country he is from maybe an "educated" yet uneducated pakistani ..... he has that type of suicidal mentality ....to make modi down he is ready to take india down ....sudden droughts happen ... india lies in deep crisis ..... i find such comments on pro-pakistani bloddy websites....its same tale written in a polished pattern/.......

      Delete
  30. I wanted to read one such article on web and i found yours. Since its depiction of war in future, you are free to write anything just as you did. Technically, this might never happen but when sentiments, patriotism and emotions plunge in brains die. Death is just too small for your motherland.. Anything is possible in an indo-pak scenario. Anyhow, we must pray to live in peace.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Dear Bill,
    Its a really good read and well written. I have to got to give you that. Arjun tanks are really good, trust me on this, they even fared better than t-90's we own. the only reason we have t-90's is owing to the bribes that the dear our neta's earned. After all everybody underestimates russian military technology, but trust me they are cheap and gives most of the usa armaments a run for their money.And dont underestimate our armoured core and military. With the airpower we have we will make sure none of the pak fighters enter the theatre of war nor do their tanks. With our su-30 mki's, jaguar, mirages we would have the paf generals begging that they werent even born. we could surgically strike all the pakistani establishments without getting a scratch on our tails. Our special 9 and 10 para regiments would be airdropped into pakistan and they will capture and destroy and create chaos within the military establishment of pakistan. Please dont forget the brahmos,my friend. And about the f-16, we have some really strong russian sam's out there bro. Pal, seriously what ever your smoking is really good shit, but this is just a good read and a fiction nothing more. Pakistan army is peanuts when compared to Indian army, but with china, we have a whole new story.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Good stuff, interesting read! Always enjoy your point of view.

    ReplyDelete
  33. no one will nuke anybody. Just a day before the 1971 war, 70 pak pilots were killed during their secret meeting by a single low-flying Indian jet. The next morning, India hit pakistan with 700 jets. War was finished before it started. War was not a draw. Pakistan had finished 95% of their weapons and was out of jet fuel. India stopped as USA 7th fleet was headed for Calcutta and China was mobilizing too if not massing troops. Again, not a draw. Trust me, there will be no future war.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's very, very, very interesting, especially as apart from you nobody in the universe - not even the Indian Air Force personnel I worked with for five years - seems to have this information . Where did you dream it up?

      Delete
    2. Are you a tamil movie director:D,because this type of artificial action only takes place in tamil movies.

      Delete
  34. another crap wahat abt ins vikramaditya mig 29l naval fighters..the ins arihant..kid u r a marksist idiologist nothing more may be wests loverboy & anti indian

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The second aircraft carrier, Vikramaditya, is at the moment in the port of Visakhapatnam, on the other side of the India, and will take too long to reach the war zone."

      Perhaps you ought to learn to, you know, read?

      Delete
  35. I really dont have any idea where to start,first i was angry(i thought it a piece written by a paki) then i was astonished(to know you are indian i have to double check),then i read your comment section and know i have pity on you but more i think i think it is not your fault it is the whole education system at fault.

    enough of my feeling now about your scenario no doubt it is well written but mr. bill it will be very nice if you have researched a bit before writing a scenario here are some real scenario or as you can say fictional tales take a look ok ..

    http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewforum.php?f=18

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let me guess:

      1. You've never met a Pakistani.

      2. You've never served in, or associated with, the armed forces.

      3. You have no intention of actually serving at any time, but would rather be a keyboard warrior.

      Delete
  36. Tamanna Singh04/05/2014 08:02

    What are you doing here, writing blogs dude ? You are truly incredible !! :) Hats off to your ingenious imagination and writing skills. Why, even Dan Brown, Micheal Crichton...am sorry, even Nostradamus will be ashamed after reading this master piece. Where on earth have you been for so long, why did thou not bestow your greatness upon us, all these years. Nevertheless, I am very glad to have stumbled upon this gem of a piece of literature, unseen and unheard of before. You made my day dude, love you for this. :)

    Now that I have praised you enough, let me tell you something interesting. There is a very famous so called 'Conspiracy Theory' making rounds in the defense circles globally. I believe the author didn't get a chance to go through it. Please dear sir, go through that and keep us all happy, with your future writings.

    P.S. The 'C' theory is called Operation Blue Tulsi. Please do write something on that. Looking forward to your next edition.

    Best!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't have time for unsourced ludicrous conspiracy theories about a Zionazi-Indian conspiracy. For one thing, with RAW's amazing ability to mess up everything, it would be common knowledge in fifteen minutes. Thank you.

      Delete
  37. will it really happen?if so it could put a permanent end to the miseries of all the hopeless people on both sides of the border rather than living like zombies and waiting for death

    ReplyDelete
  38. Dear Bill: is this not better for the countless people on either side of the border who are made to live as zombies by our esteemed rulers

    ReplyDelete
  39. Great work Bill, you rock

    ReplyDelete
  40. Morning mate, Mike here. This one looks like it will take all week to get my head around... and thanks, reminds me, haven't spoken to Arsalan in ages. From the number of trolls and people disagreeing with you here, I suspect a lot of what you've written is accurate, fiction or not.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Great imagination, which with nice grafics, WAKE UP ITS A DREAM .

    ReplyDelete
  42. I read the story by Skipping method...
    Destroyed both Countries.......Oh man
    You Crafted a real Scenario of WAR....You gave us real sensations of war day to day progress & moment of losing for both sides in the END
    .

    ReplyDelete
  43. Usmad from Kashmir08/06/2014 23:33

    Dear 'Bill the Butcher', you watch a lot of war movies, I can guess. War will happen when it will be inevitable. Predicting any event is just like predicting an earthquake. Its stupid. Spread out peace by exact knowledge, not a stupid fictional scary story.

    ReplyDelete
  44. A fantastic read, but I think I will look for another dentist...

    ReplyDelete
  45. Bill...a well written article indeed...Kuddos to u...However, i do have a question (plz note that i am not a military strategist by any means...)...

    I just have a few questions for u to answer:

    1) Assuming that both India and Pakistan have an arsenal of a 100 nuclear missiles each...Would it not make simple sense that Pakistan should launch all of its nuclear arsenal on Indian (i mean all of the 28 or so states). Why destroy a few cities when u have the opportunity to destroy the whole country.... just asking

    2) What about the use of surface to air missiles or SAM's that Pakistan already possesses to take out the Indian aircraft jets. For example: during the Kargil conflict (not war), two MIG's were taken out along with a helicopter with the help of these babies...Don't u think that the same equipment would be used by front line soldiers against the Indian Aircrafts should they launch a preemptive strike..They r radar's on the border...so any intrusion by the Indians will be detected earlier.. just asking...

    3) With regards to the use of the aircraft carrier by the Indian's against Karachi...Would the Naval Aircraft wing (currently operated by the PAF) not take out the carrier, destroyers, frigates etc)...what about the use of missile boats, midget submarines, suicide frogmen, onshore missiles etc..)

    Would love to hear ur thoughts on the questions asked above...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First, I'm sure Pakistan isn't suicidal and wouldn't launch a preemptive strike on India; not unless it's convinced that its existence was under threat. Even if it did so, Pakistan's missile forces have relatively limited range. It certainly couldn't threaten more than north and west India.

      Of course Pakistan could defend itself with SAMs, But SAMs aren't foolproof and modern aircraft have both warning systems and defences. I discount the effectiveness of both Indian and Pakistani SAMs; both sides have primitive radar systems, the SAM systems are aging if not obsolete, and going by the experience in the 1971 war India can't operate SAM systems properly anyway even if they are available.

      I have been talking in terms of a sneak attack by an Indian carrier in a short war. Obviously this stand-off attack wouldn't involve approaching close to the coast, and even then, as I've written, the Pakistani submarine arm would be a major threat.

      Delete
  46. Pakistan having a thermonuclear bomn thattoo a megaton carried over by a f16 with Supersonic speed........made the otherwise interesting article ridiculous to read......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You mean Pakistan doesn't have thermonuclear bombs, and can't mount them on F 16s, and can't use toss-bombing as a tactic? Is that what you're saying?

      Delete
    2. You mean Pakistan doesn't have thermonuclear bombs, and can't mount them on F 16s, and can't use toss-bombing as a tactic? Is that what you're saying?

      Delete
    3. Yes ..... U got mypoint......do u actually believe Pakistan will possess a thermonuclear megaton bomb in 2019.......and boss now please don't say that a f16 can fly with supersonic speeds carring a megaton bomb under its belly.....

      Delete
    4. Pakistan already possesses thermonuclear bombs.

      Can you tell me where I said the F 16 was flying with a megaton bomb under its belly at supersonic speeds? Just show me where I said that.

      Delete
  47. Congrats for ur advance knowledge bro...... U just developed one for them...... Even their govt don't know this........now can u plz start counting loopholes in the story for me

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let me make you a little challenge: write your own version of a future India-Pakistan war, according to your ideas of what might happen. As far as that goes, from your responses you'd have problems writing a single paragraph, so I won't mind if you take the help of someone actually conversant with the English language to help you.

      As for your claim that Pakistan doesn't have thermonuclear bombs, see here.

      Delete
    2. Now you have started judging me by my comments.....likewise ur whole idea of Pakistan having thermonuclear weapon is based only on a Wikipedia article .....so its time for u to stop being a wannabe butcher and start killing for truth........becos half knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge

      Its a honest comment really...... Sorry for my bad English Iwould definitely try to improve it for my future article on this matter. :)

      Delete
  48. Must have inspired by lal topi zahil hamid...nice fiction for lollywood movie..

    ReplyDelete
  49. what happend to ur warriors riding horses...grave mistake u forgot them...

    ReplyDelete
  50. The scenario you have painted above is plausible, with however major flaws.

    1. You are obviously a disgruntled leftist and/or muslim, judging by your Modi-in-serious-political opening scenario. But that is immaterial to the rest of the picture, as a very serious terrorist attack by Pakistan will lead to unbearable pressure on any Indian government to respond. So, basic point taken

    2. Your war scenario is also plausible. I agree that any war calculations - we will take Lahore in 6 days - will crumble in reality, due to multiple factors. You may be wrong in imagined details, but that's irrelevant - the basic plan will fail partially. Nontheless, as you pointed out, by end of the week, India will gain significant military advantage in conventional war - everybody will agree to that

    3. Where you really go wrong is the assumption that Pakistan will use tactical nuclear weapon. Even they can war-game this - and arrive at the same conclusion - nuclear war will completely destroy Pakistan, for ever. What makes you think they will collectively commit suicide, and kill every family members and relatives living?

    4. If nuclear war actually happens, then your remaining scenario will play out. Yes, I do not believe a pakistan airforce plane will ever reach ND, but it is irrelevant. They will get Delhi, and we will get their cities. Once this begins, it will follow its own remorseless logic.

    sudeep

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First, on the top left of this page, I called myself a leftist atheist. Last I saw there are no atheist Muslims. As for "disruntled", I wrote this article back in August 2013...long before Modi won the election.

      Second, Pakistan is already mounting tactical nuclear weapons on very short range (60 km) Hatf missiles to deter Indian assaults. A military defeat against India would be the end of Pakistan as I said above. Pakistan would fall apart. There is absolutely no reason to believe it would not use tactical nuclear weapons in its own territory to destroy Indian armoured thrusts. The only question is whether India would retaliate with nuclear weapons or choose to withdraw its forces behind the border. If it did so, Pakistan and India would probably both attempt to pretend no nuclear weapons had been used and both sides had arrived at some kind of compromise, both declaring victory.

      Delete
    2. There is no fresh wisdom in your story. India knows very well that it can soundly punish Pakistan but the price that India herself has to pay is substantially large. Pakistan is no Palestine and India, unfortunately , is no Israel despite being subject to bigger threat added with a nuclear blackmail from a rougue Islamic fanatic neigbour. Moreover, pseudos (like yourself ) are being treated as liberals in India and are hurting India's stretegic interests at every possible opportunity. Having said that, the purpose of our blog is still not clear. Do you want to send a warning to Indian defence establishment that they should not act against Pakistan perpetuated terrorism ? Shall we keep on tolerating these terrorist activities steered from Rawalpindi just because the fear of a bomb ? You should understand that every civilisation in history has made sacrifices, bigger or smaller, to safeguard their existence, and be sure, hold no suspicions, India will uphold its sovereignty at all needed costs.

      Delete
    3. I'm sure you'll be on the frontline defending India when the time comes, instead of demanding someone else does the dying?

      No?

      What a surprise.

      Who's the "pseudo"/

      I love you cowards. Too craven to put your name to a comment, but spouting off on patriotism and nationalism.

      Poltroon.

      Delete
  51. U stupid u know nothing about nuclear bombs..
    First of all India have no first use policy. If Pakistan attack India by nuclear weapons...
    India will fire most of is bombs within 5 minutes ..
    India have thousands time more powerful bombs then Hiroshima and Nagasaki ( so I think 2-3 bombs enough for Pakistan)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's lovely. I love illiterate comments like this. Congratulations, you just reached the Dumb Comment Hall of Fame.

      Delete
  52. Dear Bill,

    A few observations I made (I expect your clarifications) after reading your fiction.

    (1) You have, for reasons best known to you, underestimated Indian navy's role in any future conflict with Pakistan. No, Indian navy's role won't be limited. And again, NO, Indian navy won't send INS Viraat instead of INS Vikramaaditya. There is no reason why INS Vikramaaditya will be docked at Vizag while INS Viraat will be deployed in the western sector where India has real threat. INS Vikramaaditya is currently operating in coast near Goa-Mumbai. In the event of a war, mind that there are no more sea harrier planes but naval variant of Mig 29s. Vikramaaditya will assist Migs to attack the Karachi port from a safe distance. Also the latest destroyers like INS Kolkata will play a crucial role in attacking Karachi port, guarding Vikramaaditya and ensuring a naval blockade to prevent any other vessels reaching Pakistani ports. 75% naval power will be deployed in the western front to inflict maximum damage to poorly equipped Pakistan navy. The Pak navy's naval arm isn't strong enough for any quick response. Then there are the powerful Bramhos for a second round of damage in a maritime operation from Indian side.

    A naval attack from the Indian navy will have superiority both in water and air support. To say that Indian navy will play no role in a future conflict is simply unrealistic. More so -- about sending INS Viraat.

    (2) Why do you think in a future war, India will try to launch attacks on Lahore? In reality, it wont' focus on capturing Lahore as it is the only city with open border with India. Indian army knows very well that launching attack on a major Pakistani city is equal to inviting them to attack on of our own.

    India will instead focus on POK. Simply because, if India is able to gain an upper hand during the later phase of the war, then at a later stage it could retain more forward posts in POK or even hold at least some portion of it. It will be tactically wise for the army to do so. That way, India will also ensure the war boosts India's morale but is limited to a traditional fight.

    (3) If a nuclear scenario arises at a later phase, it is impossible that other countries will remain quiet. They are bound to take sides. Russia, Japan will take India's side whereas China might take Pakistan's. The US won't sit idle. It will do all it can to prevent the nuclear war by putting pressure on Pakistan. As you write yourself, only the initial phase of this war can be secretive in nature; after a couple of days, the entire world watches the war's progress. There will be many, many interventions/involvements. A war, if turned nuclear, won't remain just India VS Pakistan. It will be India+allies vs Pakistan +allies

    (4) It is important to note that on the Indian side of the border, there are very few cities close to the LOC. For Pakistan, however, many of their important cities are close to Indian border which makes them vulnerable to Indian missiles. Whether India will attempt to capture them or not, they will be damaged badly. The same cannot be said about Indian cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, or Kolkata. India has the time and space advantage to secure her cities. Yes, it is true that in 1965 PAF had qualitative advantage over Indian aircrafts, but those are gone days.

    (5) Last point - if India plans to take revenge, it will have a PLAN B. Moreover, India will rather retreat than create circumstances where it will be a loose target for nukes. India is not 1940s Japan or Germany which will fight until its complete destruction. We are definitely brave but not fools. We know when and where to stop. Our armed forces are reliable for the same reason. The Prime Minister Modi - you can brand him anything, but he is still human with love for his nation.

    I appreciate your core message but don't think we will have consequences so destructive. Let peace prevail. CHEERS!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your Point No 1:

      Take a look at history. In 1965, the Indian Navy ended up as a joke, staying securely bottled up in harbour rather than risk the loss of a ship. In 1971, Vikrant was hidden in the Andamans away from any possibility of action even after India invaded East Pakistan on 22nd November for fear of Pakistan’s ancient submarine Ghazi. Once the submarine sank itself on 3rd December, Vikrant was deployed against the safe targets of Cox’s Bazaar and Chittagong, neither of which Pakistan could defend and both of which could easily be bombarded by IAF aircraft. Though Vikrant would have been needed in the Arabian Sea, at no point was it deployed there. The moment India lost a ship in the Arabian Sea (Khukri), it immediately ceased all offensive naval operations.

      This is what I said in the article, and if you’d read it carefully you wouldn’t have asked about the Vikramditya:

      “The second aircraft carrier, Vikramaditya, is at the moment in the port of Visakhapatnam, on the other side of the India, and will take too long to reach the war zone.”

      The Indian Navy has never been much more than a ceremonial force, and the Indian government has always been chary of risking sinkings. There is absolutely no reason to think it will magically be different this time around. In fact in all probability the navy would not be used at all.

      Your Point No 2:

      Attack PoK? You mean swarm right up the hills into the Pakistani Army’s fortified killing grounds, where India can’t use armour? All the best of luck with that.

      Your Point No 3:

      Yes? So other countries will react and stop a nuclear exchange after the first bomb’s been used? Do you imagine either side will wait, you know, to retaliate, just to allow America (assuming it still has any viable foreign policy in South Asia) to stop said retaliation? Neither India nor Pakistan trusts America a hairbreadth – and should not under any circumstances.

      Your Point No 4:

      Delhi is actually pretty close to the international border (I assume that’s what you mean by “LoC”) in terms of flight time. Mumbai is vulnerable to long distance stand-off cruise missiles, especially if they’re fired at Trombay reactor. Ahmedabad, Ludhiana etc are virtually sitting ducks. In fact so much of India’s industry is located within striking distance of Pakistan that this is, I’m convinced, one major reason why India has not gone to war in the recent past, after the Parliament attack for example. And this is one very important reason why, if there is an all out war, India will attempt to seize Pakistani territory across the international border – to protect the industrial base.

      Your Point No 5:

      In one of my other replies I’d said that this is a distinct possibility – that if Pakistan uses nukes in its own territory to destroy Indian armoured thrusts, India will retreat rather than retaliate with more bombs. And then it would be in the interests of both sides to pretend no nuclear bombs had been used. Anyone who said otherwise would be dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

      About Modi – no comment.

      Oh, by the way, thanks for using your name and not hiding behind anonymity. I appreciate that.

      Delete
    2. Dear Bill,

      Thanks for the response.

      I disagree with the basis of your argument here. 1965 navy is not 2019 navy. Indian navy today is powerful and will be one of the top 5 naval forces in all respects by 2017. History is not always the benchmark of future. For example, ISRO carried our first satellite on a bicycle - does that mean it has always since carried its satellites on bicycles? We change with time. If Indian army hadn't learned from 1962 humiliation, it wouldn't have prevented Chinese incursions in 1967 and 1987. If we hadn't learned from 1965 air mistakes, we wouldn't have gained air superiority in 1971. So your opinion that navy is ceremonial is completely wrong. Please check the current deployment of navy in the Arabian sea. INS Vikramaditya is in the west front, more than half of India's submarines are docked there, many of the important fighter ships are also moving there and India is also going to have its first foreign naval base built at Chabahar port in Iran. It will be done by 2017. Two air bases are already in Tajikistan. India will have a joint army training center with the US (that is another army base but in secret) in Afghanistan from 2015. This way Pakistan will be covered from all directions. In any conflict in future, the naval attack on Karachi will be the first move. It has always been the strategy because that's where it hurts the most for Pak.

      As for LOC, please look at the map yourself. It's not mountains all around. There are flat areas in many sectors between POK and J&k where Indian army can cross if given orders. If it is an unexpected move, it is even easier.

      Other points have no consequences so I leave them there- but I think you are underestimating the power of navy and of our strength to cross LOC at any given time. POK is help purely because of mistakes of Nehru not because we can't take it from them.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. You mean the same navy whose chief quit recently after an endless series of mishaps, do you? You mean the same Afghanistan whose corrupt pseudo-government will collapse to the Taliban as soon as the Americans pull out? That is...pretty funny.

      Tell me how Tajik airbases will be of use in a short ground war between India and Pakistan.

      Delete
  53. include " Indian Ballistic Missile Defence Programme" in this story to make close to realistic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Re read the article and see above comments.

      Delete
  54. Wonderful story, absurd criticism, just one question
    all this writen for the fun of it, or is it a topic of interest
    I

    ReplyDelete
  55. written excellently and was very entertaining too to find such a writing after a google search..... but this future's possibility tends to zero literally and mathematically :) ....... irrespective of ur retaliatory comments on other's comments i hope this was written for entertainment and not seriously...... but if u really are serious then u may challenge me,Bill ....... in reality there are many many problems in this topic ..... starts with " The US, which until recently controlled the entire land mass between the Central Asian ‘stans and the Arabian Sea, has lost interest in the area completely following its withdrawal. "......and on on and on .......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you may reply bill....this is unrealistic...u may justify why it is not so... if u can justify things...

      Delete
  56. this is bullshit. modi's "vengeful" personality? yeahok.

    ReplyDelete
  57. It's a good fiction with a message of "Evil effect of WARS"...nothing more than that...
    However i still can't understand some points on your fiction ...for example ....
    1)when you(not by any country) dismental all SAM systems of both country ..then what's the need to fly a F-16 all the way to Delhi to nuke..(It's seemed highly illogical to me)..u can fire a missile...and that's it..and flying all the way to Delhi and no system is detect !!!!! Now world should have to learn this tech from Pak....;)

    2) Pak navy don't have any destroyer any aircraft carrier till date ...still won a naval war against Indian Navy (size almost four time to pak navy and also technically far ahead of pak)...interesting..

    3) You said in one of your comment that Iron Dome have only 5% success rate from where u gate this Info?? if really that would happen probably Israel now have same casualty rate with Gaza..

    and finally 4) Aditya mention this point earlier but still I raised it one more time how can a Country go to a war without having any backing plan??



    by the way your writing skill is amazing ...:)

    ReplyDelete
  58. hHm why dont try ur fortune in as a comedian

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  59. sir i hope this doesnt happen

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  60. fucking lunatic

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  61. chutia hi h tu billwa

    ReplyDelete

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