Thursday, 13 September 2018

A Little Basic Mathematics, Courtesy Syria

I keep hearing terrorist fanboys whining that in Idlib "only 0.5% of the population are terrorists", and that "according to the UN there are three million people" there.

All right. Let's ignore the fact that in Aleppo and in Daraa and in East Ghouta the actual number of civilians present turned out to be a tiny fraction of the so called UN estimates.

Let's ignore America's own statements of last year that al Qaeda controls every facet of life in Idlib. Let's give America amnesia about that.

Let's also accept for the sake of argument that groups like Harakat Nour ad Din al Zenki (which chopped off a sick 12 year old Palestinian boy's head in Aleppo), Ahrar al Sham (which has repeatedly allied with ISIS) and the other Islamist Muslim Brotherhood inspired groups in Idlib aren't "terrorists", but moderate democratic rebels. In fact, let's accept that they're civilians and deserving of the same protection as civilians. Let's accept, then, that 99.5% of the 3 million people present in Idlib are civilians, with only the members of the two al Qaeda fronts (Hayyat Tahrir al Sham and Hurras ad Deen) being terrorists.

So, where does that get us?

Let's check the figures!

0.5% of 3 million people are individuals who even the terrorist fanboys admit to be terrorists.

0.5% of 3 million = 15000

15000 admitted armed and hardened jihadi terrorists.

That's equivalent to a full infantry division.

How many al Qaeda did America invade Afghanistan to dislodge, again?

A hundred?


  1. The US media don't call them 'democratic rebels' but 'peaceful, pro-democracy activists' (i.e., al-Qaeda and the ISL) who are being brutally murdered by the evil Syrian, Russian, and especially Persian regimes because those regimes are run by dictators who hate democracy. Everyone murdered by the evil Syrian, Russian, and Persian regimes is, by definition, an innocent civilian, just as every man, woman, and child killed by NATO is a criminal terrorist, since NATO's smart precision weapons avoid all civilian casualties (just read Thomas Friedman in the New York Times).


  2. Bill,
    Oh man, you do not understand how the intel agencies in 'Merikkka work. See, they figured it all out way back during that nasty, useless war in Vietnam. The more bad guys we kill, the more there are left to kill. See, they sprout up, like weeds or something. OK? Got it now?
    Yes, I was in 100% sarcastic mode above. However, it seems my sarcastic mode is quite close to the way they actually do operate. And the world is much worse off for it.

  3. Good point. The Russian channel of course says the US is in Syria illegally. So does the Chinese channel, which means something. Thrasymachus used to say the US is always right, but now he might be saying it's China that's always right. The US is determined to force regime change in Syria, Venezuela, and the DPRK. The only question is whether the people really in charge are really that stupid. Any of the three probably means, well, it can't be WWIII, because the US Constitution says it's not a war unless the Congress votes to call it a war, and they haven't done that since 1945. So it'll be World Peace Keeping Exercise I & Last. Of course, a Frenchman said Russia would be a pushover, and an Austrian said the USSR would be a pushover, and I believe they both managed regime change without any difficulty, and I expect the US will do about as well as the Frenchman and the Austrian.


  4. Turkey sent its military into Idlib, and said if anyone tries to take Idlib, Turkey will fight. After several days of talks, Pubin backed down: Idlib is ceded back to the Ottoman Empire. Of course, Turkey could count on NATO for support if it were Turkey against Russia, so it looks like Putin decided he didn't want the escalation that looked inevitable. It looks like the peaceful pro-democracy activists, the ISL and al-Qaeda, can live in peace in Idlib, and no one will go to war with Turkey to remove them.



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